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While local explanations for AI models can offer insights into individual predictions, such as feature importance, they are plagued by issues like instability. The unreliability of feature weights, often skewed due to poorly calibrated ML…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-01-09 Helena Lofstrom , Tuwe Lofstrom , Ulf Johansson , Cecilia Sonstrod

Calibration strengthens the trustworthiness of black-box models by producing better accurate confidence estimates on given examples. However, little is known about if model explanations can help confidence calibration. Intuitively, humans…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Dongfang Li , Baotian Hu , Qingcai Chen

This paper addresses a significant gap in explainable AI: the necessity of interpreting epistemic uncertainty in model explanations. Although current methods mainly focus on explaining predictions, with some including uncertainty, they fail…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Helena Löfström , Tuwe Löfström , Johan Hallberg Szabadvary

Methods for reasoning under uncertainty are a key building block of accurate and reliable machine learning systems. Bayesian methods provide a general framework to quantify uncertainty. However, because of model misspecification and the use…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-07-03 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Nathan Fenner , Stefano Ermon

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is often an integral part of modern decision support systems. The best-performing predictive models used in AI-based decision support systems lack transparency. Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) aims to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Tuwe Löfström , Helena Löfström , Ulf Johansson , Cecilia Sönströd , Rudy Matela

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) offer interpretable insights into machine learning predictions by answering ``what if?" questions. However, in real-world settings where models are frequently updated, existing counterfactual explanations…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-12 Jamie Duell , Xiuyi Fan

Counterfactual explanations have substantially increased in popularity in the past few years as a useful human-centric way of understanding individual black-box model predictions. While several properties desired of high-quality…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Shubham Sharma , Alan H. Gee , Jette Henderson , Joydeep Ghosh

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are advocated as being ideally suited to providing algorithmic recourse for subjects affected by the predictions of machine learning models. While CEs can be beneficial to affected individuals, recent work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Junqi Jiang , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

Counterfactual explanations play an important role in detecting bias and improving the explainability of data-driven classification models. A counterfactual explanation (CE) is a minimal perturbed data point for which the decision of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Donato Maragno , Jannis Kurtz , Tabea E. Röber , Rob Goedhart , Ş. Ilker Birbil , Dick den Hertog

Ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed frequencies is critical in high-stakes domains such as clinical decision support, autonomous driving and financial risk assessment. Existing calibration methods typically apply a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Tomer Lavi , Bracha Shapira , Nadav Rappoport

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are a practical tool for demonstrating why machine learning classifiers make particular decisions. For CEs to be useful, it is important that they are easy for users to interpret. Existing methods for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-17 Lisa Schut , Oscar Key , Rory McGrath , Luca Costabello , Bogdan Sacaleanu , Medb Corcoran , Yarin Gal

Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty due to measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty resulting from limited data, but not both in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Ilia Azizi , Juraj Bodik , Jakob Heiss , Bin Yu

The increasing use of Machine Learning (ML) models to aid decision-making in high-stakes industries demands explainability to facilitate trust. Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are ideally suited for this, as they can offer insights into…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-20 Junqi Jiang , Luca Marzari , Aaryan Purohit , Francesco Leofante

In recent years, explainability in machine learning has gained importance. In this context, counterfactual explanation (CE), which is an explanation method that uses examples, has attracted attention. However, it has been pointed out that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Keita Kinjo

The deployment of machine learning classifiers in high-stakes domains requires well-calibrated confidence scores for model predictions. In this paper we introduce the notion of variable-based calibration to characterize calibration…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-07 Markelle Kelly , Padhraic Smyth

Computer model calibration is a crucial step in building a reliable computer model. In the face of massive physical observations, a fast estimation for the calibration parameters is urgently needed. To alleviate the computational burden, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-24 Shurui Lv , Yan Wang , Jun Yu

Calibration is crucial in deep learning applications, especially in fields like healthcare and autonomous driving, where accurate confidence estimates are vital for decision-making. However, deep neural networks often suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-17 Linwei Tao , Haolan Guo , Minjing Dong , Chang Xu

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of modern machine-learning models. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

Conformal Prediction provides distribution-free prediction intervals with guaranteed coverage, but its reliance on a single global calibration threshold obscures the sources of uncertainty at the instance level. In particular, it conflates…

Uncertainty in probabilistic classifiers predictions is a key concern when models are used to support human decision making, in broader probabilistic pipelines or when sensitive automatic decisions have to be taken. Studies have shown that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-09 Nicolas Posocco , Antoine Bonnefoy
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