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Uncertainty estimates must be calibrated (i.e., accurate) and sharp (i.e., informative) in order to be useful. This has motivated a variety of methods for recalibration, which use held-out data to turn an uncalibrated model into a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-06 Charles Marx , Shengjia Zhao , Willie Neiswanger , Stefano Ermon

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) guide users on how to adjust inputs to machine learning models to achieve desired outputs. While existing research primarily addresses static scenarios, real-world applications often involve data or model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Ignacy Stępka , Mateusz Lango , Jerzy Stefanowski

Understanding the nuanced performance of machine learning models is essential for responsible deployment, especially in high-stakes domains like healthcare and finance. This paper introduces a novel framework, Conformalized Exceptional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-22 Xin Du , Sikun Yang , Wouter Duivesteijn , Mykola Pechenizkiy

Estimates of predictive uncertainty are important for accurate model-based planning and reinforcement learning. However, predictive uncertainties---especially ones derived from modern deep learning systems---can be inaccurate and impose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-21 Ali Malik , Volodymyr Kuleshov , Jiaming Song , Danny Nemer , Harlan Seymour , Stefano Ermon

In the context of human-in-the-loop Machine Learning applications, like Decision Support Systems, interpretability approaches should provide actionable insights without making the users wait. In this paper, we propose Accelerated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-24 David Dandolo , Chiara Masiero , Mattia Carletti , Davide Dalle Pezze , Gian Antonio Susto

This paper studies the problem of post-hoc calibration of machine learning classifiers. We introduce the following desiderata for uncertainty calibration: (a) accuracy-preserving, (b) data-efficient, and (c) high expressive power. We show…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-01 Jize Zhang , Bhavya Kailkhura , T. Yong-Jin Han

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

In safety-critical applications data-driven models must not only be accurate but also provide reliable uncertainty estimates. This property, commonly referred to as calibration, is essential for risk-aware decision-making. In regression a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Jelke Wibbeke , Nico Schönfisch , Sebastian Rohjans , Andreas Rauh

We discover a theoretical connection between explanation estimation and distribution compression that significantly improves the approximation of feature attributions, importance, and effects. While the exact computation of various machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-24 Hubert Baniecki , Giuseppe Casalicchio , Bernd Bischl , Przemyslaw Biecek

Model explanations can be valuable for interpreting and debugging predictive models. We study a specific kind called Concept Explanations, where the goal is to interpret a model using human-understandable concepts. Although popular for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-08 Vihari Piratla , Juyeon Heo , Katherine M. Collins , Sukriti Singh , Adrian Weller

Perturbation-based explanations are widely utilized to enhance the transparency of machine-learning models in practice. However, their reliability is often compromised by the unknown model behavior under the specific perturbations used.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Thomas Decker , Volker Tresp , Florian Buettner

Machine learning can significantly improve performance for decision-making under uncertainty across a wide range of domains. However, ensuring robustness guarantees requires well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, which can be difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Christopher Yeh , Nicolas Christianson , Alan Wu , Adam Wierman , Yisong Yue

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) are a powerful technique used to explain Machine Learning models by showing how the input to a model should be minimally changed for the model to produce a different output. Similar proposals have been made…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-01 Nicola Gigante , Francesco Leofante , Andrea Micheli

Rigorous statistical methods, including parameter estimation with accompanying uncertainties, underpin the validity of scientific discovery, especially in the natural sciences. With increasingly complex data models such as deep learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-18 Aurora Grefsrud , Nello Blaser , Trygve Buanes

Accurate probabilistic predictions can be characterized by two properties -- calibration and sharpness. However, standard maximum likelihood training yields models that are poorly calibrated and thus inaccurate -- a 90% confidence interval…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-14 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Shachi Deshpande

Explainable AI has become a common term in the literature, scrutinized by computer scientists and statisticians and highlighted by psychological or philosophical researchers. One major effort many researchers tackle is constructing general…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-12 Carina Newen , Daniel Bodemer , Sonja Glantz , Emmanuel Müller , Magdalena Wischnewski , Lenka Schnaubert

Counterfactual Explanations (CFEs) interpret machine learning models by identifying the smallest change to input features needed to change the model's prediction to a desired output. For classification tasks, CFEs determine how close a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Margarita A. Guerrero , Cristian R. Rojas

Uncertainty quantification in automated image analysis is highly desired in many applications. Typically, machine learning models in classification or segmentation are only developed to provide binary answers; however, quantifying the…

Counterfactual Explanations (CEs) have received increasing interest as a major methodology for explaining neural network classifiers. Usually, CEs for an input-output pair are defined as data points with minimum distance to the input that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Junqi Jiang , Jianglin Lan , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

This work addresses the challenge of providing consistent explanations for predictive models in the presence of model indeterminacy, which arises due to the existence of multiple (nearly) equally well-performing models for a given dataset…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-14 Dan Ley , Leonard Tang , Matthew Nazari , Hongjin Lin , Suraj Srinivas , Himabindu Lakkaraju