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This paper examines estimation of skill formation models, a critical component in understanding human capital development and its effects on individual outcomes. Existing estimators are either based on moment conditions and only applicable…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-28 Antonia Antweiler , Joachim Freyberger

Small area estimation models are essential for estimating population characteristics in regions with limited sample sizes, thereby supporting policy decisions, demographic studies, and resource allocation, among other use cases. The spatial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-20 Zhenhua Wang , Paul A. Parker , Scott H. Holan

Marginal structural models are a popular method for estimating causal effects in the presence of time-varying exposures. In spite of their popularity, no scalable non-parametric estimator exist for marginal structural models with…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-30 Axel Martin , Michele Santacatterina , Iván Díaz

Traditional methods for spatial inference estimate smooth interpolating fields based on features measured at well-located points. When the spatial locations of some observations are missing, joint inference of the fields and locations is…

We investigate statistical inference across time scales. We take as toy model the estimation of the intensity of a discretely observed compound Poisson process with symmetric Bernoulli jumps. We have data at different time scales:…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-07 Céline Duval , Marc Hoffmann

The function-on-function regression model is fundamental for analyzing relationships between functional covariates and responses. However, most existing function-on-function regression methodologies assume independence between observations,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Ufuk Beyaztas , Han Lin Shang , Gizel Bakicierler Sezer

To study the impact of climate variables on morbidity of some diseases in Mexico, we propose a spatio-temporal varying coefficients regression model. For that we introduce a new spatio-temporal dependent process prior, in a Bayesian…

Applications · Statistics 2019-12-02 Luis E. Nieto-Barajas

Spatio-temporal (ST) forecasting is critical for dynamic systems, yet existing methods predominantly rely on modeling a limited set of observed target variables. In this paper, we present the first systematic exploration of exogenous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Wei Chen , Yuqian Wu , Yuanshao Zhu , Xixuan Hao , Shiyu Wang , Xiaofang Zhou , Yuxuan Liang

Cognitive processes undergo various fluctuations and transient states across different temporal scales. Superstatistics are emerging as a flexible framework for incorporating such non-stationary dynamics into existing cognitive model…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-10-02 Lukas Schumacher , Martin Schnuerch , Andreas Voss , Stefan T. Radev

This paper studies a continuous-time market {under stochastic environment} where an agent, having specified an investment horizon and a target terminal mean return, seeks to minimize the variance of the return with multiple stocks and a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2013-02-28 Wan-Kai Pang , Yuan-Hua Ni , Xun Li , Ka-Fai Cedric Yiu

Foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm, enabling a diverse range of data analytics and knowledge discovery tasks across scientific fields. Inspired by the success of FMs, particularly large language models, researchers…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-27 Sean Bin Yang , Ying Sun , Yunyao Cheng , Yan Lin , Kristian Torp , Jilin Hu

We propose a hybrid deterministic and stochastic approach to achieve extended time scales in atomistic simulations that combines the strengths of molecular dynamics (MD) and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in an easy-to-implement way. The…

Materials Science · Physics 2011-10-18 Pratyush Tiwary , Axel van de Walle

We study the problem of global maximization of a function f given a finite number of evaluations perturbed by noise. We consider a very weak assumption on the function, namely that it is locally smooth (in some precise sense) with respect…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Michal Valko , Alexandra Carpentier , Rémi Munos

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Diederik P Kingma , Max Welling

We compare estimators of the (essential) supremum and the integral of a function $f$ defined on a measurable space when $f$ may be observed at a sample of points in its domain, possibly with error. The estimators compared vary in their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-04 Larry Goldstein , Yosef Rinott , Marco Scarsini

We study the spatio-temporal prediction problem and introduce a novel point-process-based prediction algorithm. Spatio-temporal prediction is extensively studied in Machine Learning literature due to its critical real-life applications such…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-17 Oguzhan Karaahmetoglu , Suleyman S. Kozat

In this paper, we develop and analyze a stochastic algorithm for solving space-time fractional diffusion models, which are widely used to describe anomalous diffusion dynamics. These models pose substantial numerical challenges due to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-08-29 Tengteng Cui , Chengtao Sheng , Bihao Su , Zhi Zhou

Wind-speed processes exhibit substantial temporal variability and spatial dependence, yet volatility dynamics across monitoring networks remain relatively unexplored. This study investigates the spatiotemporal behaviour of wind-speed…

Applications · Statistics 2026-05-11 Ariane Nidelle Meli Chrisko , Philipp Otto

Spatio-temporal data are ubiquitous in the agricultural, ecological, and environmental sciences, and their study is important for understanding and predicting a wide variety of processes. One of the difficulties with modeling spatial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-25 Christopher K. Wikle

This paper develops a simple two-stage variational Bayesian algorithm to estimate panel spatial autoregressive models, where N, the number of cross-sectional units, is much larger than T, the number of time periods without restricting the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-08 Deborah Gefang , Stephen G. Hall , George S. Tavlas
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