English

Spatiotemporal dynamics of wind-speed volatility

Applications 2026-05-11 v1

Abstract

Wind-speed processes exhibit substantial temporal variability and spatial dependence, yet volatility dynamics across monitoring networks remain relatively unexplored. This study investigates the spatiotemporal behaviour of wind-speed volatility using daily observations from 141 stations in Northern Italy over 2016--2021, with measurements at 10 m and 100 m enabling the analysis of spatial and vertical dependence. We adopt a parsimonious spatiotemporal volatility framework based on GARCH-type dynamics, in which conditional variance depends on past local shocks and spatially aggregated information from neighbouring stations. The approach combines a spatial mean specification with structured volatility models using distance-based and directionally informed weight matrices. Results show that properly modelling spatial dependence in the mean is essential for well-behaved residuals and reliable inference. Forecast performance is strongly driven by the mean specification: flexible structures perform better when residual spatial dependence remains, while parsimonious distance-based models yield robust out-of-sample forecasts once spatial interactions are captured. Persistence increases with height, and a multivariate extension reveals cross-height dependence.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2605.07225,
  title  = {Spatiotemporal dynamics of wind-speed volatility},
  author = {Ariane Nidelle Meli Chrisko and Philipp Otto},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2605.07225},
  year   = {2026}
}

Comments

Submitted to Environmetrics. 6 figures, 11 tables

R2 v1 2026-07-01T12:56:52.336Z