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Many hard problems in the computational sciences are equivalent to counting the leaves of a decision tree, or, more generally, summing a cost function over the nodes. These problems include calculating the permanent of a matrix, finding the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-02-06 Alathea Jensen

We present a framework that allows for the non-asymptotic study of the $2$-Wasserstein distance between the invariant distribution of an ergodic stochastic differential equation and the distribution of its numerical approximation in the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-27 J. M. Sanz-Serna , Konstantinos C. Zygalakis

Discrete multiplicative turbulent cascades are described using a formalism involving infinitely divisible random measures. This permits to consider the continuous limit of a cascade developed on a continuum of scales, and to provide the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-24 F. Schmitt , D. Marsan

The standard theory of stochastic approximation (SA) is extended to the case when the constraint set is a Riemannian manifold. Specifically, the standard ODE method for analyzing SA schemes is extended to iterations constrained to stay on a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-11-30 Suhail M. Shah

This paper deals with the estimation of a probability measure on the real line from data observed with an additive noise. We are interested in rates of convergence for the Wasserstein metric of order $p\geq 1$. The distribution of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-05 Jérôme Dedecker , Aurélie Fischer , Bertrand Michel

We consider the problem to identify the most likely flow in phase space, of (inertial) particles under stochastic forcing, that is in agreement with spatial (marginal) distributions that are specified at a set of points in time. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-02-25 Yongxin Chen , Giovanni Conforti , Tryphon T. Georgiou , Luigia Ripani

We develop a new randomized iterative algorithm---stochastic dual ascent (SDA)---for finding the projection of a given vector onto the solution space of a linear system. The method is dual in nature: with the dual being a non-strongly…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2016-01-29 Robert Mansel Gower , Peter Richtarik

This paper studies the optimization of the KL functional on the Wasserstein space of probability measures, and develops a sampling framework based on Wasserstein gradient descent (WGD). We identify two important subclasses of the…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-04 Van Chien Ta , Thi Mai Hong Chu , Minh-Ngoc Tran

Stochastic mathematical models are essential tools for understanding and predicting complex phenomena. The purpose of this work is to study the exit times of a stochastic dynamical system-specifically, the mean exit time and the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-06 Eric José Ávila-Vales , José Villa-Morales

Data represented by probability measures arise as empirical distributions, posterior distributions, and feature-based representations of complex objects. We study heterogeneity in a population of probability measures through the expected…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-17 Kisung You

We introduce the observable Wasserstein distance, a framework for deriving lower bounds on the Wasserstein distance between probability measures on Polish metric spaces, designed to bypass the computational intractability of exact optimal…

Metric Geometry · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Edivaldo Lopes dos Santos , Leandro Vicente Mauri , Washington Mio , Tom Needham

Given a set $P$ of $n$ points in the plane, we study the computation of the probability distribution function of both the area and perimeter of the convex hull of a random subset $S$ of $P$. The random subset $S$ is formed by drawing each…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2015-09-10 Pablo Pérez-Lantero

This work considers the problem of sampling from a probability distribution known up to a normalization constant while satisfying a set of statistical constraints specified by the expected values of general nonlinear functions. This problem…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-08 Luiz F. O. Chamon , Mohammad Reza Karimi , Anna Korba

In this paper, we investigate the well-posedness of the martingale problem associated to non-linear stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in the sense of McKean-Vlasov under mild assumptions on the coefficients as well as classical…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2021-04-23 Paul-Eric Chaudru de Raynal , Noufel Frikha

Stochastic process discovery is concerned with deriving a model capable of reproducing the stochastic character of observed executions of a given process, stored in a log. This leads to an optimisation problem in which the model's parameter…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-01 Pierre Cry , Paolo Ballarini , András Horváth , Pascale Le Gall

Constructing flexible probability models that respect constraints on key functionals -- such as the mean -- is a fundamental problem in nonparametric statistics. Existing approaches lack systematic tools for enforcing such constraints while…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-03 Alejandro Jara , Carlos Sing-Long

We study the problem of sampling from a probability distribution $\pi$ on $\rset^d$ which has a density \wrt\ the Lebesgue measure known up to a normalization factor $x \mapsto \rme^{-U(x)} / \int_{\rset^d} \rme^{-U(y)} \rmd y$. We analyze…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-17 M. Barkhagen , N. H. Chau , É. Moulines , M. Rásonyi , S. Sabanis , Y. Zhang

Split conformal prediction provides finite-sample marginal coverage under exchangeability, but this guarantee averages over the random calibration sample. We study instead the law of the calibration-conditional coverage induced by a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-20 Thiago R. Ramos , Helton Graziadei , Luben M. C. Cabezas

Recently a likelihood-based methodology has been developed by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) with a view to testing and ranking seismicity models. We analyze this approach from the standpoint of possible…

Geophysics · Physics 2011-08-19 George Molchan

We present a new inductive rule for verifying lower bounds on expected values of random variables after execution of probabilistic loops as well as on their expected runtimes. Our rule is simple in the sense that loop body semantics need to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-08-12 Marcel Hark , Benjamin Lucien Kaminski , Jürgen Giesl , Joost-Pieter Katoen
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