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Coupled climate model simulations designed to isolate the effects of Arctic sea-ice loss often apply artificial heating, either directly to the ice or through modification of the surface albedo, to constrain sea-ice in the absence of other…

Accurate simulation of sea ice is critical for predictions of future Arctic sea ice loss, looming climate change impacts, and more. A key feature in Arctic sea ice is the formation of melt ponds. Each year melt ponds develop on the surface…

Although high-resolution mapping of Pan-Arctic sea ice with reliable corresponding uncertainty is essential for operational sea ice concentration (SIC) charting, it is a difficult task due to some key challenges, e.g., the subtle nature of…

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea…

Recent rapid loss of the Arctic sea ice motivates the study of the Arctic sea ice thickness. Global climate model that describes the ice's thickness evolution requires an accurate spatial temperature profile of the Arctic sea ice. However,…

It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping…

Machine learning (ML) models are successful with weather forecasting and have shown progress in climate simulations, yet leveraging them for useful climate predictions needs exploration. Here we show this feasibility using Neural General…

The increase in Arctic marine activity due to rapid warming and significant sea ice loss necessitates highly reliable, short-term sea ice forecasts to ensure maritime safety and operational efficiency. In this work, we present a novel…

The stochastic Arctic sea ice model described as a single periodic non-autonomous stochastic ordinary differential equation (ODE) is useful in explaining the seasonal variability of Arctic sea ice. However, to be nearer to realistic…

In this manuscript, we consider a common modeling framework for Arctic landfast ice based on the work of Lemieux et al. [27], which is designed for use in large-scale climate models. This approach extends the classical viscous-plastic…

Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, we estimate a close contemporaneous linear relationship between Arctic sea ice area and cumulative…

Sea ice concentration is an important metric used to characterize polar sea ice behavior. Understanding this behavior and accurately representing it is of critical importance for climate science research, and also has important uses in the…

The field of ice sheet, ice shelf and glacier-related seismology, cryoseismology, has seen rapid development in recent years. As concern grows for the implications of change in the great ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, so instrument…

Several environmental tipping points and self-reinforcing feedback loops are still disregarded within the frequently used climate models. Thus, existing climate models are not very representative for providing projections of the conditions…

Ice storms are extreme weather events that can have devastating implications for the sustainability of natural ecosystems as well as man made infrastructure. Ice storms are caused by a complex mix of atmospheric conditions and are among the…

In this study we perform online sea ice bias correction within a GFDL global ice-ocean model. For this, we use a convolutional neural network (CNN) which was developed in a previous study (Gregory et al., 2023) for the purpose of predicting…

We use "glide charts" (plots of sequences of root mean squared forecast errors as the target date is approached) to evaluate and compare fixed-target forecasts of Arctic sea ice. We first use them to evaluate the simple feature-engineered…

The downward trend in Arctic sea ice extent is one of the most dramatic signals of climate change during recent decades. Comprehensive climate models have struggled to reproduce this, typically simulating a slower rate of sea ice retreat…

Sea ice plays a crucial role in the climate system, particularly in the Marginal Ice Zone (MIZ), a transitional area consisting of fragmented ice between the open ocean and consolidated pack ice. As the MIZ expands, understanding its…

In large lakes, ice cover plays an important role in shipping and navigation, coastal erosion, regional weather and climate, and aquatic ecosystem function. In this study, a novel deep learning model for ice cover concentration prediction…