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Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Conformal prediction is a popular technique for constructing prediction intervals with distribution-free coverage guarantees. The coverage is marginal, meaning it only holds on average over the entire population but not necessarily for any…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-28 Yao Zhang , Emmanuel J. Candès

Ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed frequencies is critical in high-stakes domains such as clinical decision support, autonomous driving and financial risk assessment. Existing calibration methods typically apply a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Tomer Lavi , Bracha Shapira , Nadav Rappoport

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…

Parameters of sub-populations can be more relevant than super-population ones. For example, a healthcare provider may be interested in the effect of a treatment plan for a specific subset of their patients; policymakers may be concerned…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-22 Ying Jin , Dominik Rothenhäusler

Mixture models are often used to identify meaningful subpopulations (i.e., clusters) in observed data such that the subpopulations have a real-world interpretation (e.g., as cell types). However, when used for subpopulation discovery,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-04 Jiawei Li , Jonathan H. Huggins

We address the problem of validating the ouput of clustering algorithms. Given data $\mathcal{D}$ and a partition $\mathcal{C}$ of these data into $K$ clusters, when can we say that the clusters obtained are correct or meaningful for the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-02 Marina Meilă , Hanyu Zhang

We consider the problem of distribution-free conformal prediction and the criterion of group conditional validity. This criterion is motivated by many practical scenarios including hidden stratification and group fairness. Existing methods…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-21 Samuel Deng , Navid Ardeshir , Daniel Hsu

A computational theory for clustering and a semi-supervised clustering algorithm is presented. Clustering is defined to be the obtainment of groupings of data such that each group contains no anomalies with respect to a chosen grouping…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Nassir Mohammad

Calibration is a well-studied property of predictors which guarantees meaningful uncertainty estimates. Multicalibration is a related notion -- originating in algorithmic fairness -- which requires predictors to be simultaneously calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-06 Dutch Hansen , Siddartha Devic , Preetum Nakkiran , Vatsal Sharan

Machine learning applications often require calibrated predictions, e.g. a 90\% credible interval should contain the true outcome 90\% of the times. However, typical definitions of calibration only require this to hold on average, and offer…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-10 Shengjia Zhao , Tengyu Ma , Stefano Ermon

Introduced as a notion of algorithmic fairness, multicalibration has proved to be a powerful and versatile concept with implications far beyond its original intent. This stringent notion -- that predictions be well-calibrated across a rich…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Parikshit Gopalan , Michael P. Kim , Mihir Singhal , Shengjia Zhao

We introduce a general semiparametric clusterwise elliptical distribution to assess how latent cluster structure shapes continuous outcomes. Using a subjectwise representation, we first estimate cluster-specific mean vectors and a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-10 Jen-Chieh Teng , Sheng-Hsin Fan , Chin-Tsang Chiang , Ming-Yueh Huang , Alvin Lim

We study supervised learning problems using clustering constraints to impose structure on either features or samples, seeking to help both prediction and interpretation. The problem of clustering features arises naturally in text…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-09-20 Vincent Roulet , Fajwel Fogel , Alexandre d'Aspremont , Francis Bach

We consider stochastic settings for clustering, and develop provably-good approximation algorithms for a number of these notions. These algorithms yield better approximation ratios compared to the usual deterministic clustering setting.…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2023-10-13 David G. Harris , Shi Li , Thomas Pensyl , Aravind Srinivasan , Khoa Trinh

Subgroup discovery is a local pattern mining technique to find interpretable descriptions of sub-populations that stand out on a given target variable. That is, these sub-populations are exceptional with regard to the global distribution.…

Databases · Computer Science 2017-09-26 Janis Kalofolias , Mario Boley , Jilles Vreeken

Improving the explainability of the results from machine learning methods has become an important research goal. Here, we study the problem of making clusters more interpretable by extending a recent approach of [Davidson et al., NeurIPS…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-02-10 Prathyush Sambaturu , Aparna Gupta , Ian Davidson , S. S. Ravi , Anil Vullikanti , Andrew Warren

Consider a multi-class labelling problem, where the labels can take values in $[k]$, and a predictor predicts a distribution over the labels. In this work, we study the following foundational question: Are there notions of multi-class…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Parikshit Gopalan , Lunjia Hu , Guy N. Rothblum

Trust calibration is necessary to ensure appropriate user acceptance in advanced automation technologies. A significant challenge to achieve trust calibration is to quantitatively estimate human trust in real-time. Although multiple trust…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2023-04-17 Jundi Liu , Kumar Akash , Teruhisa Misu , Xingwei Wu

Supervised learning is classically formulated as training a model to minimize a fixed loss function over a fixed distribution, or task. However, an emerging paradigm instead views model training as extracting enough information from data so…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-03 Sivaraman Balakrishnan , Nika Haghtalab , Daniel Hsu , Brian Lee , Eric Zhao
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