Related papers: Mathematical modelling to inform outbreak response…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
COVID-19 pandemic represents an unprecedented global health crisis in the last 100 years. Its economic, social and health impact continues to grow and is likely to end up as one of the worst global disasters since the 1918 pandemic and the…
Historically, infectious diseases caused considerable damage to human societies, and they continue to do so today. To help reduce their impact, mathematical models of disease transmission have been studied to help understand disease…
Understanding the timing of the peak of a disease outbreak forms an important part of epidemic forecasting. In many cases, such information is essential for planning increased hospital bed demand and for designing of public health…
Current methods to optimize vaccine dose are purely empirically based, whereas in the drug development field, dosing determinations use far more advanced quantitative methodology to accelerate decision-making. Applying these established…
Multi-model prediction efforts in infectious disease modeling and climate modeling involve multiple teams independently producing projections under various scenarios. Often these scenarios are produced by the presence and absence of a…
[Spreadsheet] Models are invaluable tools for strategic planning. Models help key decision makers develop a shared conceptual understanding of complex decisions, identify sensitivity factors and test management scenarios. Different…
Epidemiologists aiming to model the dynamics of global events face a significant challenge in identifying the factors linked with anomalies such as disease outbreaks. In this paper, we present a novel method for identifying the most…
During outbreaks of serious infectious diseases many individuals closely follow media reports of the outbreak and take steps, including self-isolation, to protect themselves from infection and possibly death. Self-isolation can take many…
Infectious disease outbreaks recapitulate biology: they emerge from the multi-level interaction of hosts, pathogens, and their shared environment. As a result, predicting when, where, and how far diseases will spread requires a complex…
This paper gives an introduction to rule-based modelling applied to topics in infectious diseases. Rule-based models generalise reaction-based models with reagents that have internal state and may be bound together to form complexes, as in…
There has been much recent interest in modelling epidemics on networks, particularly in the presence of substantial clustering. Here, we develop pairwise methods to answer questions that are often addressed using epidemic models, in…
We propose a mathematical framework, based on conic geometric programming, to control a susceptible-infected-susceptible viral spreading process taking place in a directed contact network with unknown contact rates. We assume that we have…
Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…
Insect outbreaks are biotic disturbances in forests and agroecosystems that cause economic and ecological damage. This phenomenon depends on a variety of biological and physical factors. The complexity and practical importance of the issue…
Dengue is one of the most important infectious diseases in the world, in terms of death and economic cost. Hence, the modeling of dengue is of great importance to help us understand the dynamics disease, and interfering with its spreading…
In this paper, we propose a model predictive control (MPC) method for real-time intervention of spreading processes, such as epidemics and wildfire, over large-scale networks. The goal is to allocate budgeted resources each time step to…
Infectious disease modeling is used to forecast epidemics and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Although the core assumption of mass-action models of homogeneously mixed population is often implausible, they are…
In this paper we first introduce the general stochastic epidemic model for the spread of infectious diseases. Then we give methods for inferring model parameters such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and vaccination coverage $v_c$…
The review is devoted to analysis of mathematical models used for describing epidemic processes. A main focus is done on the models that are based on partial differential equations (PDEs), especially those that were developed and used for…