Related papers: Time-Series Foundation AI Model for Value-at-Risk …

Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…

We investigate a novel approach to time-series modeling, inspired by the successes of large pretrained foundation models. We introduce FAE (Foundation Auto-Encoders), a foundation generative-AI model for anomaly detection in time-series…

The debate of what quantitative risk measure to choose in practice has mainly focused on the dichotomy between Value at Risk (VaR) -- a quantile -- and Expected Shortfall (ES) -- a tail expectation. Range Value at Risk (RVaR) is a natural…

This paper compares the Value--at--Risk (VaR) forecasts delivered by alternative model specifications using the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure recently developed by Hansen et al. (2011). The direct VaR estimate provided by the…

In the financial services industry, forecasting the risk factor distribution conditional on the history and the current market environment is the key to market risk modeling in general and value at risk (VaR) model in particular. As one of…

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) is a central component of modern LLM systems, particularly in scenarios where up-to-date information is crucial for accurately responding to user queries or when queries exceed the scope of the training…

Motivated by the recent success of time-series foundation models for zero-shot forecasting, we present a methodology for $\textit{in-context fine-tuning}$ of a time-series foundation model. In particular, we design a pretrained foundation…

Expected Shortfall (ES) is the average return on a risky asset conditional on the return being below some quantile of its distribution, namely its Value-at-Risk (VaR). The Basel III Accord, which will be implemented in the years leading up…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…

Demographic shifts, influenced by globalization, economic conditions, geopolitical events, and environmental factors, pose significant challenges for policymakers and researchers. Accurate demographic forecasting is essential for informed…

Time series foundation models provide a universal solution for generating forecasts to support optimization problems in energy systems. Those foundation models are typically trained in a prediction-focused manner to maximize forecast…

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical,…

We formulate a new inference task in the domain of multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF), called Variable Subset Forecast (VSF), where only a small subset of the variables is available during inference. Variables are absent during…

Accurate volatility forecasts are vital in modern finance for risk management, portfolio allocation, and strategic decision-making. However, existing methods face key limitations. Fully multivariate models, while comprehensive, are…

Visual autoregressive models achieve remarkable generation quality through next-scale predictions across multi-scale token pyramids. However, the conventional method uses uniform scale downsampling to build these pyramids, leading to…

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard…

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons.…

Many methods for time-series forecasting are known in classical statistics, such as autoregression, moving averages, and exponential smoothing. The DeepAR framework is a novel, recent approach for time-series forecasting based on deep…

Recent advances in time series foundation models (TSFMs) demonstrate strong expressive capacity through large-scale pretraining across diverse time series domains. Zero-shot time series forecasting with TSFMs, however, exhibits limited…

A semi-parametric joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting framework employing multiple realized measures is developed. The proposed framework extends the realized exponential GARCH model to be semi-parametrically…