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Uncertainties in a structure is inevitable, which generally lead to variation in dynamic response predictions. For a complex structure, brute force Monte Carlo simulation for response variation analysis is infeasible since one single run…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-05-08 Kai Zhou , Jiong Tang

We study rare events in systems of diffusive fields driven out of equilibrium by the boundaries. We present a numerical technique and use it to calculate the probabilities of rare events in one and two dimensions. Using this technique, we…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-09-10 Guy Bunin , Yariv Kafri , Daniel Podolsky

Our goal in this paper is to propose an alternative risk measure which takes into account the fluctuations of losses and possible correlations between random variables. This new notion of risk measures, that we call Copula Conditional Tail…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-20 Brahim Brahimi

Our paper contributes to the theory of conditional risk measures and conditional certainty equivalents. We adopt a random modular approach which proved to be effective in the study of modular convex analysis and conditional risk measures.…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-10 Giulio Principi , Fabio Maccheroni

In this article we develop a method for performing post hoc inference of the False Discovery Proportion (FDP) over multiple contrasts of interest in the multivariate linear model. To do so we use the bootstrap to simulate from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-21 Samuel Davenport , Bertrand Thirion , Pierre Neuvial

Large-scale multiple testing with highly correlated test statistics arises frequently in many scientific research. Incorporating correlation information in estimating false discovery proportion has attracted increasing attention in recent…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-28 Jianqing Fan , Xu Han

Multiple hypothesis testing is a fundamental problem in high dimensional inference, with wide applications in many scientific fields. In genome-wide association studies, tens of thousands of tests are performed simultaneously to find if any…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-11-16 Jianqing Fan , Xu Han , Weijie Gu

This paper is devoted to studying three-dimensional non-commensurate fractional order differential equation systems with Caputo derivatives. Necessary and sufficient conditions are for the asymptotic stability of such systems are obtained.

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2024-10-15 Kai Diethelm , Safoura Hashemishahraki , Ha Duc Thai , Hoang The Tuan

Using Random Matrix Theory, we propose a universal and versatile tool to reveal the existence of "fleeting modes", i.e. portfolios that carry statistically significant excess risk, signalling ex-post a change in the correlation structure in…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-03 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud , Iacopo Mastromatteo , Marc Potters , Konstantin Tikhonov

This paper introduces an innovative method for conducting conditional independence testing in high-dimensional data, facilitating the automated discovery of significant associations within distinct subgroups of a population, all while…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-19 Matteo Sesia , Tianshu Sun

Multiple tests are designed to test a whole collection of null hypotheses simultaneously. Their quality is often judged by the false discovery rate (FDR), i.e. the expectation of the quotient of the number of false rejections divided by the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-11-24 Julia Benditkis , Philipp Heesen , Arnold Janssen

We use the method of Maximum (relative) Entropy to process information in the form of observed data and moment constraints. The generic "canonical" form of the posterior distribution for the problem of simultaneous updating with data and…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-09-08 Adom Giffin , Ariel Caticha

This paper considers inference for conditional moment inequality models using a multiscale statistic. We derive the asymptotic distribution of this test statistic and use the result to propose feasible critical values that have a simple…

Applications · Statistics 2015-12-10 Timothy B. Armstrong , Hock Peng Chan

This work studies the distributionally robust evaluation of expected values over temporal data. A set of alternative measures is characterized by the causal optimal transport. We prove the strong duality and recast the causality constraint…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-18 Bingyan Han

We consider a mixed variational formulation recently proposed for the coupling of the Brinkman--Forchheimer and Darcy equations and develop the first reliable and efficient residual-based a posteriori error estimator for the 2D version of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-12-02 Sergio Caucao , Paulo Zúñiga

Uncertainty in past lifetime distributions and the timing of inactivity in systems and their components can be effectively measured using the fractional generalized cumulative past entropy (FGCPE) and its dynamic extension (DFGCPE),…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-12 Poulami Paul , Chanchal Kundu

Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Tobias Maringgele

We present a multi-fidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution. In the Bayesian inference setting, traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Caroline Tatsuoka , Minglei Yang , Dongbin Xiu , Guannan Zhang

We study a new measure of codependency in the second moment of a continuous-time multivariate asset price process, which we name the realized copula of volatility. The statistic is based on local volatility estimates constructed from…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-22 Kim Christensen , Wenjing Liu , Zhi Liu , Yoann Potiron

Assessment of the degree of boundedness/stability of multidimensional nonlinear systems with time-dependent and nonperiodic coefficients is an important problem in various applied areas which has no adequate resolution yet. Most of the…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-06-07 Mark A. Pinsky