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Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 António Farinhas , Chrysoula Zerva , Dennis Ulmer , André F. T. Martins

The existing upper and lower bounds between entropy and error are mostly derived through an inequality means without linking to joint distributions. In fact, from either theoretical or application viewpoint, there exists a need to achieve a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2013-03-06 Bao-Gang Hu , Hong-Jie Xing

In a context of multiple hypothesis testing, we provide several new exact calculations related to the false discovery proportion (FDP) of step-up and step-down procedures. For step-up procedures, we show that the number of erroneous…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-29 Etienne Roquain , Fanny Villers

Bifurcations mark qualitative changes of long-term behavior in dynamical systems and can often signal sudden ("hard") transitions or catastrophic events (divergences). Accurately locating them is critical not just for deeper understanding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Yorgos M. Psarellis , Themistoklis P. Sapsis , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

Multiple testing has been a popular topic in statistical research. Although vast works have been done, controlling the false discoveries remains a challenging task when the corresponding test statistics are dependent. Various methods have…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-05 Meng Mei , Tao Yu , Yuan Jiang

Recently, there has been growing attention to study uncertainty measures for doubly truncated random variables. In this paper, the concept of varextropy for doubly truncated random variables is introduced. The changes of this measure under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-01 Raheleh Zamini , Somayeh Ghafouri , Faranak Goodarzi

This paper studies a fixed-design residual bootstrap method for the two-step estimator of Francq and Zako\"ian (2015) associated with the conditional Expected Shortfall. For a general class of volatility models the bootstrap is shown to be…

Econometrics · Economics 2018-11-29 Alexander Heinemann , Sean Telg

The use of counterfactual explanations (CFXs) is an increasingly popular explanation strategy for machine learning models. However, recent studies have shown that these explanations may not be robust to changes in the underlying model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-21 Junqi Jiang , Francesco Leofante , Antonio Rago , Francesca Toni

We propose and axiomatize preferences on a product state space in light of uncertainty regarding the dependency of different payoff-relevant factors. Dependence structures allow to decompose probabilities and allow to pin down behavior…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-28 Gerrit Bauch , Lorenz Hartmann

This paper studies duality and optimality conditions for general convex stochastic optimization problems. The main result gives sufficient conditions for the absence of a duality gap and the existence of dual solutions in a locally convex…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-06-01 Teemu Pennanen , Ari-Pekka Perkkiö

We propose a new estimator to measure directed dependencies in time series. The dimensionality of data is first reduced using a new non-uniform embedding technique, where the variables are ranked according to a weighted sum of the amount of…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-02 Payam Shahsavari Baboukani , Carina Graversen , Emina Alickovic , Jan Østergaard

This paper explores the capabilities of the Constant Elasticity of Variance model driven by a mixed-fractional Brownian motion (mfCEV) [Axel A. Araneda. The fractional and mixed-fractional CEV model. Journal of Computational and Applied…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-11-15 Axel A. Araneda

Conformal prediction is emerging as a popular paradigm for providing rigorous uncertainty quantification in machine learning since it can be easily applied as a post-processing step to already trained models. In this paper, we extend…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-02 Charles Lu , Yaodong Yu , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy , Michael I. Jordan , Ramesh Raskar

The escape probability $\xi_{x}$ from a site $x$ of a one-dimensional disordered lattice with trapping is treated as a discrete dynamical evolution by random iterations over nonlinear maps parametrized by the right and left jump…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2016-08-31 Thomas Wichmann , Achille Giacometti , K. P. N. Murthy

The cumulative residual extropy (CRJ) is a measure of uncertainty that serves as an alternative to extropy. It replaces the probability density function with the survival function in the expression of extropy. This work introduces a new…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-17 Gaurav Kandpal , Nitin Gupta

In this paper, we study the conditional Dirichlet process (cDP) when a functional of a random distribution is specified. Specifically, we apply the cDP to the functional condition model, a nonparametric model in which a finite-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-23 Jaeyong Lee , Kwangmin Lee , Jaegui Lee , Seongil Jo

A fruitful idea, when providing subdifferential formulae and dual representations for convex risk measures, is to make use of the conjugate duality theory in convex optimization. In this paper we underline the outstanding role played by the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2010-05-17 Radu Ioan Bot , Alina-Ramona Fratean

Much of the field of Machine Learning exhibits a prominent set of failure modes, including vulnerability to adversarial examples, poor out-of-distribution (OoD) detection, miscalibration, and willingness to memorize random labelings of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Ian Fischer

Recently Qiu et al. (2017) have introduced residual extropy as measure of uncertainty in residual lifetime distributions analogues to residual entropy (1996). Also, they obtained some properties and applications of that. In this paper, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-09-07 Osman Kamari , Francesco Buono

In the context of multiple hypotheses testing, the proportion $\pi_0$ of true null hypotheses in the pool of hypotheses to test often plays a crucial role, although it is generally unknown a priori. A testing procedure using an implicit or…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-02-17 Gilles Blanchard , Etienne Roquain