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This paper discusses financial fraud detection in imbalanced dataset using homogeneous and non-homogeneous Poisson processes. The probability of predicting fraud on the financial transaction is derived. Applying our methodology to the…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2019-12-11 Régis Houssou , Jérôme Bovay , Stephan Robert

We analyze extensions of the Poisson process in which any interarrival time that exceeds a fixed value $r$ is counted as an interarrival of duration $r$. In the engineering application that initiated this work, one part is tested at a time,…

We study a single-server priority queue with a finite number of classes, in which the arrivals follow a fractional Poisson process of index $\alpha \in (0,1]$ and the service completions are triggered by an independent fractional Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Nicos Georgiou , Enrico Scalas , Vladislav Vysotsky

We propose a flexible change-point model for inhomogeneous Poisson Processes, which arise naturally from next-generation DNA sequencing, and derive score and generalized likelihood statistics for shifts in intensity functions. We construct…

Applications · Statistics 2012-06-29 Jeremy J. Shen , Nancy R. Zhang

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of a Poisson arrival process where the rate function is assumed to lie in the span of a known basis. Our goal is to estimate the basis expansions coefficients given a…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-12-24 Michael G. Moore , Mark A. Davenport

Sequential tests and their implied confidence sequences, which are valid at arbitrary stopping times, promise flexible statistical inference and on-the-fly decision making. However, strong guarantees are limited to parametric sequential…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-12 Aurelien Bibaut , Nathan Kallus , Michael Lindon

We consider together the retrospective and the sequential change-point detection in a general class of integer-valued time series. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter $\theta^*$ which may change over time. We propose…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-29 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

In this paper, we define an underlying data generating process that allows for different magnitudes of cross-sectional dependence, along with time series autocorrelation. This is achieved via high-dimensional moving average processes of…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-07-22 Jiti Gao , Fei Liu , Bin Peng , Yayi Yan

In this paper, we propose a general method for testing composite hypotheses. Our idea is to use confidence limits to define stopping and decision rules. The requirements of operating characteristic function can be satisfied by adjusting the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-02-10 Xinjia Chen

A common assumption when modeling queuing systems is that arrivals behave like a Poisson process with constant parameter. In practice, however, call arrivals are often observed to be significantly overdispersed. This motivates that in this…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-07 Mariska Heemskerk , Julia Kuhn , Michel Mandjes

Suppose we observe a Poisson process in real time for which the intensity may take on two possible values $\lambda_0$ and $\lambda_1$. Suppose further that the priori probability of the true intensity is not given. We solve a minimax…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Hongwei Mei

Existing sequential generalized estimating equation methodology for longitudinal and group-correlated data focuses on narrow hypotheses concerning treatment efficacy and often makes modeling assumptions that impede the desirable robustness…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-16 Nathan T. Provost , Abdus S. Wahed

We develop a new tool, the time inhomogeneous Poisson equation in the whole space and with a terminal condition at infinity, to study the asymptotic behavior of the non-autonomous multi-scale stochastic system with irregular coefficients,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-13 Ling Wang , Pengcheng Xia , Longjie Xie , Li Yang

Kimura and Yoshida treated a model in which the finite variation part of a two-dimensional semimartingale is expressed by time-integration of latent processes. They proposed a correlation estimator between the latent processes and proved…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-21 Akitoshi Kimura

This paper discusses infill asymptotics for logistic regression estimators for spatio-temporal point processes whose intensity functions are of log-linear form. We establish strong consistency and asymptotic normality for the parameters of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-08-26 M. N. M. van Lieshout , C. Lu

We present an approach for testing for the existence of continuous generators of discrete stochastic transition matrices. Typically, the known approaches to ascertain the existence of continuous Markov processes are based in the assumption…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2016-03-23 Pedro Lencastre , Frank Raischel , Tim Rogers , Pedro G. Lind

Consider compound Poisson processes with negative drift and no negative jumps, which converge to some spectrally positive L\'evy process with non-zero L\'evy measure. In this paper we study the asymptotic behavior of the local time process,…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-24 Amaury Lambert , Florian Simatos

We are interested in estimating the location of what we call "smooth change-point" from $n$ independent observations of an inhomogeneous Poisson process. The smooth change-point is a transition of the intensity function of the process from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-02-17 A. Amiri , S Dachian

E-variables are tools for retaining type-I error guarantee with optional stopping. We extend E-variables for sequential two-sample tests to general null hypotheses and anytime-valid confidence sequences. We provide implementations for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-27 Rosanne Turner , Peter Grünwald

Statistical hypothesis tests typically use prespecified sample sizes, yet data often arrive sequentially. Interim analyses invalidate classical error guarantees, while existing sequential methods require rigid testing preschedules or incur…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-17 Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker