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This paper presents an integrated modelling assessment that estimated the sensitivities of five endogenous factors in commercial rangelands, i.e. number of active farmers, profits, stocking rate, standing herbage biomass, and soil erosion,…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p,…
Growing anthropogenic pressures have increased the need for robust predictive models. Meeting this demand requires approaches that can handle bigger data to yield forecasts that capture the variability and underlying uncertainty of…
This research presents a three-step causal inference framework that integrates correlation analysis, machine learning-based causality discovery, and LLM-driven interpretations to identify socioeconomic factors influencing carbon emissions…
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of bifurcations and phase transitions, the…
Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…
Current research challenges in sustainability science require us to consider nonlinear changes e.g. shifts that do not happen gradually but can be sudden and difficult to predict. Central questions are therefore how we can prevent harmful…
The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…
Like ESG investing, climate change is an important concern for asset managers and owners, and a new challenge for portfolio construction. Until now, investors have mainly measured carbon risk using fundamental approaches, such as with…
Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate…
We propose a dedicated model to assist with the life cycle analysis of emissions of scientific computing centres. The model takes into account both the embodied carbon and emissions from use, as well as other factors such as data centre…
Climate change and environmental concerns represent a global crisis accompanied by significant economic challenges. Regular international conferences held to address these issues, such as in the UK (2021) and Egypt (2022), spark debate…
In this paper, we provide an integrated systems modeling approach to analyzing global externalities from a microeconomic perspective. Various forms of policy (fiscal, monetary, etc.) have addressed flaws and market failures in models, but…
We present a simple agent-based model to study the development of a bubble and the consequential crash and investigate how their proximate triggering factor might relate to their fundamental mechanism, and vice versa. Our agents invest…
The understanding of complex systems has become a central issue because complex systems exist in a wide range of scientific disciplines. Time series are typical experimental results we have about complex systems. In the analysis of such…
This paper examines the pivotal role central banks play in advancing sustainable finance, a crucial component in addressing global environmental and social challenges. As supervisors of financial stability and economic growth, central banks…
The state of earth's climate is constrained by well-known physical principles such as energy balance and the conservation of energy. Increased greenhouse gas concentrations affect the atmospheric optical depth, and physical consistency…
The rapid growth in demand for HPC systems has led to a rise in carbon footprint, which requires urgent intervention. In this work, we present a comprehensive analysis of the carbon footprint of high-performance computing (HPC) systems,…
The response of ecosystems to perturbations is considered from a thermodynamic perspective by acknowledging that, as for all macroscopic systems and processes, the dynamics and stability of ecosystems is subject to definite thermodynamic…
The Paris agreement is the first-ever universally accepted and legally binding agreement on global climate change. It is a bridge between today's and climate-neutrality policies and strategies before the end of the century. Critical to this…