Related papers: Green bubbles: a four-stage paradigm for detection…
Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large…
Catastrophic transitions, where a system shifts abruptly between alternate steady states, are a generic feature of many nonlinear systems. Recently these regime shift were suggested as the mechanism underlies many ecological catastrophes,…
Motivated by the climate crisis that is currently ravaging the planet, we propose and analyze a novel framework for the evolution of anthropogenic climate impact in which the evolution of human environmental behavior and environmental…
The economical world consists of a highly interconnected and interdependent network of firms. Here we develop temporal and structural network tools to analyze the state of the economy. Our analysis indicates that a strong clustering can be…
Recently research on bubble and its burst attract much interest of researchers in various field such as economics and physics. Economists have been regarding bubble as a disorder in prices. However, this research strategy has overlooked an…
In this paper, we present the possibility of using the Ising like models to explain by Statistical Physics means the connection between the financial discontinuities (herd behavior, bubbles, crashes) and "critical points" in physical of…
We identify the phase of a cycle as a new critical factor for tipping points (critical transitions) in cyclic systems subject to time-varying external conditions. As an example, we consider how contemporary climate variability induces…
Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their…
Accurately forecasting Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) is essential for designing climate strategies that balance economic growth with environmental objectives. Elevated CPU levels can delay regulatory implementation, hinder investment in…
A successful response to climate change needs vast investments in low-carbon research, energy, and sustainable development. Governments can drive research, provide environmental regulation, and accelerate global development, but the…
The cost of the impacts of climate change have already proven to be larger than previously believed. Understanding the costs and benefits of adapting to the changing climate is necessary to make targeted and appropriate investment…
The analysis of environmental mixtures is of growing importance in environmental epidemiology, and one of the key goals in such analyses is to identify exposures and their interactions that are associated with adverse health outcomes.…
Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system,…
Despite the wide use of networks as a versatile tool for exploring complex social systems, little is known about how to detect and forecast abrupt changes in social systems. In this report, we develop an early warning approach based on…
In recent decades freshwater lakes have seen an increase in human presence. A common byproduct of this human presence is eutrophication, which readily results in harmful cyanobacteria blooms. In this work we propose a model that couples the…
The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
This article provides a self-contained overview of the theory of rational asset price bubbles. We cover topics from basic definitions, properties, and classical results to frontier research, with an emphasis on bubbles attached to real…
Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in…
The Anthropocene is characterized by close interdependencies between the natural Earth system and the human society, posing novel challenges to model development. Here we present a conceptual model describing the long-term coevolution of…