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This paper deals with the problem of estimating the volume of the excursion set of a function $f:\mathbb{R}^d \to \mathbb{R}$ above a given threshold, under a probability measure on $\mathbb{R}^d$ that is assumed to be known. In the…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-26 Julien Bect , David Ginsbourger , Ling Li , Victor Picheny , Emmanuel Vazquez

We investigate the merits of replication, and provide methods for optimal design (including replicates), with the goal of obtaining globally accurate emulation of noisy computer simulation experiments. We first show that replication can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-28 Mickael Binois , Jiangeng Huang , Robert B Gramacy , Mike Ludkovski

Monte Carlo simulation is often used for the reliability assessment of power systems, but it converges slowly when the system is complex. Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) can be applied to speed up computation without compromises on model…

Computation · Statistics 2022-07-12 Ensieh Sharifnia , Simon Tindemans

Numerical simulations are crucial for modeling complex systems, but calibrating them becomes challenging when data are noisy or incomplete and likelihood evaluations are computationally expensive. Bayesian calibration offers an interesting…

Surrogate models provide a quick-to-evaluate approximation to complex computational models and are essential for multi-query problems like design optimisation. The inputs of current deterministic computational models are usually…

Applications · Statistics 2024-10-15 Thomas A. Archbold , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Fehmi Cirak

Estimation of patient-specific model parameters is important for personalized modeling, although sparse and noisy clinical data can introduce significant uncertainty in the estimated parameter values. This importance source of uncertainty,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-04 Jwala Dhamala , John L. Sapp , B. Milan Horácek , Linwei Wang

Active learning in computer experiments aims at allocating resources in an intelligent manner based on the already observed data to satisfy certain objectives such as emulating or optimizing a computationally expensive function. There are…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-24 Difan Song , V. Roshan Joseph

Concurrent multiscale finite element analysis (FE2) is a powerful approach for high-fidelity modeling of materials for which a suitable macroscopic constitutive model is not available. However, the extreme computational effort associated…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-07-16 I. B. C. M. Rocha , P. Kerfriden , F. P. van der Meer

This paper presents a probabilistic surrogate model for the accelerated design of electric vehicle battery enclosures with a focus on crash performance. The study integrates high-throughput finite element simulations and Gaussian Process…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-08 Shadab Anwar Shaikh , Harish Cherukuri , Kranthi Balusu , Ram Devanathan , Ayoub Soulami

Surrogate models have become ubiquitous in science and engineering for their capability of emulating expensive computer codes, necessary to model and investigate complex phenomena. Bayesian emulators based on Gaussian processes adequately…

Computation · Statistics 2017-08-02 A. Garbuno-Inigo , F. A. DiazDelaO , K. M. Zuev

Bayesian formulations of inverse problems are attractive for their ability to incorporate prior knowledge and update probabilistic models as new data become available. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample posterior probability…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-05-07 Giovanni Angelo Meles , Stefano Marelli , Niklas Linde

Fast inference of numerical model parameters from data is an important prerequisite to generate predictive models for a wide range of applications. Use of sampling-based approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo may become intractable…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-10 Yu Wang , Fang Liu , Daniele E. Schiavazzi

In this study, we consider two classes of multicriteria two-stage stochastic programs in finite probability spaces with multivariate risk constraints. The first-stage problem features a multivariate stochastic benchmarking constraint based…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-06-02 Nilay Noyan , Merve Merakli , Simge Kucukyavuz

Stochastic unit commitment models typically handle uncertainties in forecast demand by considering a finite number of realizations from a stochastic process model for loads. Accurate evaluations of expectations or higher moments for the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-07-09 Cosmin Safta , Richard L. Chen , Habib N. Najm , Ali Pinar , Jean-paul watson

We propose an algorithm for an optimal adaptive selection of points from the design domain of input random variables that are needed for an accurate estimation of failure probability and the determination of the boundary between safe and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-06-30 Aleksei Gerasimov , Miroslav Vořechovský

Bayesian posterior distributions arising in modern applications, including inverse problems in partial differential equation models in tomography and subsurface flow, are often computationally intractable due to the large computational cost…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-10 Tapio Helin , Andrew Stuart , Aretha Teckentrup , Konstantinos Zygalakis

Trial level surrogates are useful tools for improving the speed and cost effectiveness of trials, but surrogates that have not been properly evaluated can cause misleading results. The evaluation procedure is often contextual and depends on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-23 Michael C Sachs , Erin E Gabriel , Alessio Crippa , Michael J Daniels

We present a novel way of accelerating hybrid surrogate methods for the calculation of failure probabilities. The main idea is to use mesh refinement in order to obtain improved local surrogates of low computation cost to simulate on. These…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-09-23 Jing Li , Panos Stinis

Surrogate models are used to alleviate the computational burden in engineering tasks, which require the repeated evaluation of computationally demanding models of physical systems, such as the efficient propagation of uncertainties. For…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-28 Felix Schneider , Iason Papaioannou , Gerhard Müller

Machine learning surrogate emulators are needed in engineering design and optimization tasks to rapidly emulate computationally expensive physics-based models. In micromechanics problems the local full-field response variables are desired…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-05-17 Patxi Fernandez-Zelaia , Jason Mayeur , Jiahao Cheng , Yousub Lee , Kevin Knipe , Kai Kadau