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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a tipping element of the climate system. The current estimate of the global warming threshold for the onset of an AMOC collapse is +4.0C (uncertainty range 1.4-8C). However, such a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-30 René M. van Westen , Reyk Börner , Henk A. Dijkstra

One of the most prominent climate tipping elements is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which can potentially collapse due to the input of fresh water in the North Atlantic. Although AMOC collapses have been induced in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-04 René M. van Westen , Michael Kliphuis , Henk A. Dijkstra

Recently the global average temperature has temporarily exceeded the 1.5{\deg}C goal of the Paris Agreement, and so an overshoot of various climate tipping elements becomes increasingly likely. In this study we analyze the physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-18 Jelle Soons , Tobias Grafke , René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-30 René M. van Westen , Elian Y. P. Vanderborght , Michael Kliphuis , Henk A. Dijkstra

Tipping points (TP) in climate sub-systems are usually thought to occur at a well-defined, critical forcing parameter threshold, via destabilization of the system state by a single, dominant positive feedback. However, coupling to other…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Johannes Lohmann , Henk A. Dijkstra , Markus Jochum , Valerio Lucarini , Peter D. Ditlevsen

The sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to changes in basin integrated net evaporation is highly dependent on the zonal salinity contrast at the southern border of the Atlantic. Biases in the freshwater…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2012-10-26 Andrea A. Cimatoribus , Matthijs den Toom , Sybren S. Drijfhout , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports substantial amounts of heat into the North Atlantic sector, and hence is of very high importance in regional climate projections. The AMOC has been observed to show…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2019-06-19 Hassan Alkhayuon , Peter Ashwin , Laura C Jackson , Courtney Quinn , Richard A Wood

Paleoclimate proxy records and models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can transition abruptly between a strong and a weak state. Empirical warning signals in observational fingerprints indeed suggest a…

Declines in resilience have been observed in several climate tipping elements over the past decades, including the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the Amazon rainforest (AR). Large-scale nonlinear and possibly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-08 Annika Högner , Giorgia Di Capua , Jonathan F. Donges , Reik V. Donner , Georg Feulner , Nico Wunderling

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-24 R. Chapman , P. Ashwin , J. Baker , R. A. Wood

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial ocean current system, could transition to a weak state. Despite severe associated climate impacts, assessing the AMOC's response under global warming and its proximity to…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-09 Reyk Börner , Oliver Mehling , Jost von Hardenberg , Valerio Lucarini

The extent of anthropogenic influence on the Earths climate warrants studies of the ocean as a major player. The ocean circulation is important for transporting properties like heat, carbon and nutrients. A supposed major conduit is the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-11-14 Hans van Haren

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the present-day climate, and could potentially collapse under sufficient freshwater or CO2-forcing. While the effect of the Bering Strait on AMOC stability…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-18 Jelle Soons , Henk A. Dijkstra

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a much studied component of the climate system, because its suspected multistability is associated with tipping behaviour yielding potentially large regional and global climatic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-24 Johannes Lohmann , Valerio Lucarini

The Atlantic surface currents associated with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) play a central role in regulating Earth's climate, yet their large scale dynamical response to climate variability remains poorly…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-14 Han Huang , Ningning Tao , Hongyu Wang , Teng Liu , Fei Xie , Xichen Li , Yongwen Zhang , Niklas Boers , Jingfang Fan , Deliang Chen , Xiaosong Chen

Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-04-19 Peter D. Ditlevsen , Susanne Ditlevsen

Projections from global climate models reveal a significant inter-model spread in future rainfall changes in the tropical Atlantic by the end of the 21st century, including alterations to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-12-02 Giada Cerato , Katinka Bellomo , Roberta D Agostino , Jost von Hardenberg

We study hysteresis properties of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) under a slowly-varying North Atlantic (20$^{\circ}$N -- 50$^{\circ}$N) freshwater flux forcing in state-of-the-art Global Climate Model (GCM), the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-29 René M. van Westen , Henk A. Dijkstra

Climate models indicate a possible collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) even for moderate climate change scenarios. There is considerable uncertainty in its likelihood for a given scenario and the critical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-22 Johannes Lohmann

Climate tipping points are critical thresholds in Earth's climate system where a small change can cause abrupt and potentially irreversible shifts towards a new state. Tipping points in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-10 Jasmine Noory
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