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Data-driven risk analysis involves the inference of probability distributions from measured or simulated data. In the case of a highly reliable system, such as the electricity grid, the amount of relevant data is often exceedingly limited,…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-07-11 Simon H. Tindemans , Goran Strbac

Anomalies are strange data points; they usually represent an unusual occurrence. Anomaly detection is presented from the perspective of Wireless sensor networks. Different approaches have been taken in the past, as we will see, not only to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-08-30 Pelumi Oluwasanya

Estimating the uncertainty of a neural network plays a fundamental role in safety-critical settings. In perception for autonomous driving, measuring the uncertainty means providing additional calibrated information to downstream tasks, such…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-12-30 Stefano Gasperini , Jan Haug , Mohammad-Ali Nikouei Mahani , Alvaro Marcos-Ramiro , Nassir Navab , Benjamin Busam , Federico Tombari

Information compression techniques are majorly employed to address the concern of reducing communication cost over peer-to-peer links. In this paper, we investigate distributed Nash equilibrium (NE) seeking problems in a class of…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2023-09-22 Xiaomeng Chen , Yuchi Wu , Xinlei Yi , Minyi Huang , Ling Shi

We present the fundamentals of a measure transport approach to sampling. The idea is to construct a deterministic coupling---i.e., a transport map---between a complex "target" probability measure of interest and a simpler reference measure.…

Computation · Statistics 2017-12-27 Youssef Marzouk , Tarek Moselhy , Matthew Parno , Alessio Spantini

In this study, an efficient stochastic gradient-free method, the ensemble neural networks (ENN), is developed. In the ENN, the optimization process relies on covariance matrices rather than derivatives. The covariance matrices are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Yuntian Chen , Haibin Chang , Meng Jin , Dongxiao Zhang

Model fitting is possibly the most extended problem in science. Classical approaches include the use of least-squares fitting procedures and maximum likelihood methods to estimate the value of the parameters in the model. However, in recent…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-04-12 J. Lopez-Santiago , L. Martino , J. Miguez , M. A. Vazquez

The paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the performance of likelihood weighting (LW) on a subset of nodes in Bayesian networks. The proposed scheme requires fewer samples to converge due to reduction in sampling variance. The…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Bozhena Bidyuk , Rina Dechter

Normalizing flows are tractable density models that can approximate complicated target distributions, e.g. Boltzmann distributions of physical systems. However, current methods for training flows either suffer from mode-seeking behavior,…

Energy-Based Models (EBMs) provide a flexible framework for generative modeling, but their training remains theoretically challenging due to the need to approximate normalization constants and efficiently sample from complex, multi-modal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Davide Carbone

Nested sampling (NS) is a popular algorithm for Bayesian computation. We investigate statistical errors in NS both analytically and numerically. We show two analytic results. First, we show that the leading terms in Skilling's expression…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2023-03-29 Andrew Fowlie , Qiao Li , Huifang Lv , Yecheng Sun , Jia Zhang , Le Zheng

Neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) provide expressive representations of invertible transport maps that can be used to approximate complex probability distributions, e.g., for generative modeling, density estimation, and Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-07 Youssef Marzouk , Zhi Ren , Jakob Zech

User activities generate a significant number of poor-quality or irrelevant images and data vectors that cannot be processed in the main data processing pipeline or included in the training dataset. Such samples can be found with manual…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Garnik Vareldzhan , Kirill Yurkov , Konstantin Ushenin

Importance sampling (IS) is a variance reduction method for simulating rare events. A recent paper by Dupuis, Wang and Sezer (Ann. App. Probab. 17(4):1306- 1346, 2007) exploits connections between IS and stochastic games and optimal control…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-24 Ali Devin Sezer

Mathematical models for complex systems are often accompanied with uncertainties. The goal of this paper is to extract a stochastic differential equation governing model with observation on stationary probability distributions. We develop a…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Xiaoli Chen , Hui Wang , Jinqiao Duan

Data selection seeks to identify a compact yet informative subset from large-scale training corpora, balancing sample quality against collection diversity. We formulate this problem as a Weighted Independent Set (WIS) on a similarity graph,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Yuan Zhang , Lifeng Guo , Junwen Pan , Wenzhao Zheng , Wen Zhou , Kuan Cheng , Kurt Keutzer , Shanghang Zhang

Understanding the uncertainty of a neural network's (NN) predictions is essential for many purposes. The Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to this, however applying it to NNs is challenging due to large numbers of parameters…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-27 Tim Pearce , Felix Leibfried , Alexandra Brintrup , Mohamed Zaki , Andy Neely

We consider the worst-case load-shedding problem in electric power networks where a number of transmission lines are to be taken out of service. The objective is to identify a pre-specified number of line outage that leads to the maximum…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-10-22 Fu Lin

Detecting anomalies in datasets is a longstanding problem in machine learning. In this context, anomalies are defined as a sample that significantly deviates from the remaining data. Meanwhile, optimal transport (OT) is a field of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-09 Eduardo Fernandes Montesuma , Adel El Habazi , Fred Ngole Mboula

We propose and investigate new complementary methodologies for estimating predictive variance networks in regression neural networks. We derive a locally aware mini-batching scheme that result in sparse robust gradients, and show how to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-05 Nicki S. Detlefsen , Martin Jørgensen , Søren Hauberg