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The COVID-19 pandemic provides new motivation for a classic problem in epidemiology: estimating the empirical rate of transmission during an outbreak (formally, the time-varying reproduction number) from case counts. While standard methods…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-12-08 Bryan Wilder , Michael J. Mina , Milind Tambe

A model of interacting agents, following plausible behavioral rules into a world where the Covid-19 epidemic is affecting the actions of everyone. The model works with (i) infected agents categorized as symptomatic or asymptomatic and (ii)…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2021-08-23 Gianpiero Pescarmona , Pietro Terna , Alberto Acquadro , Paolo Pescarmona , Giuseppe Russo , Emilio Sulis , Stefano Terna

The COVID-19 pandemic represents the most significant public health disaster since the 1918 influenza pandemic. During pandemics such as COVID-19, timely and reliable spatio-temporal forecasting of epidemic dynamics is crucial. Deep…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Lijing Wang , Aniruddha Adiga , Srinivasan Venkatramanan , Jiangzhuo Chen , Bryan Lewis , Madhav Marathe

Behavior-disease models suggest that pandemics can be contained cost-effectively if individuals take preventive actions when disease prevalence rises among their close contacts. However, assessing local awareness behavior in real-world…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-16 Gergely Ódor , Márton Karsai

Understanding dynamics of an infectious disease helps in designing appropriate strategies for containing its spread in a population. Recent mathematical models are aimed at studying dynamics of some specific types of infectious diseases. In…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-02-05 P. Raja Sekhara Rao , M. Naresh Kumar

In a world being hit by waves of COVID-19, vaccination is a light on the horizon. However, the roll-out of vaccination strategies and their influence on the pandemic are still open problems. In order to compare the effect of various…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-04-23 N. L. Barreiro , C. I. Ventura , T. Govezensky , M. Núñez , P. G. Bolcatto , R. A. Barrio

Diverse and complex intervention policies deployed over the last years have shown varied effectiveness in controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. However, a systematic analysis and modelling of the combined effects of different viral lineages…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-06-27 Quang Dang Nguyen , Sheryl L. Chang , Christina M. Jamerlan , Mikhail Prokopenko

A model of the spread of viruses in selected city and in a network of cities is considered, taking into account the delay caused by the long incubation period of the virus. The effect of delay effects is shown in comparison with pandemics…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-05 P. A. Golovinski

In order to slow the spread of the CoViD-19 pandemic, governments around the world have enacted a wide set of policies limiting the transmission of the disease. Initially, these focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions; more recently,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-06-24 Janoś Gabler , Tobias Raabe , Klara Röhrl , Hans-Martin von Gaudecker

Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection.…

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly challenged traditional epidemiological models due to factors such as delayed diagnosis, asymptomatic transmission, isolation-induced contact changes, and underreported mortality. In response to these…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-10 Wenchen Liu , Chang Liu , Dehui Wang , Yiyuan She

We study the temporal reconstruction of epidemics evolving over networks. Given partial or aggregated temporal information of the epidemic, our goal is to estimate the complete evolution of the spread leveraging the topology of the network…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-20 Gojko Cutura , Boning Li , Ananthram Swami , Santiago Segarra

Understanding the joint impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 development is important for making public health decisions that control the pandemic. Recently, we created a method in forecasting the daily…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2022-01-19 Xiunan Wang , Hao Wang , Pouria Ramazi , Kyeongah Nah , Mark Lewis

We discuss several issues of statistical design, data collection, analysis, communication, and decision making that have arisen in recent and ongoing coronavirus studies, focusing on tools for assessment and propagation of uncertainty. This…

Applications · Statistics 2020-06-17 Jon Zelner , Julien Riou , Ruth Etzioni , Andrew Gelman

Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-07-22 Rafael A. Barrio , Kimmo K. Kaski , Gudmundur G. Haraldsson , Thor Aspelund , Tzipe Govezensky

Pandemics, in addition to affecting the health of populations, can have huge impacts on their social and economic behavior. These factors, on the other hand, have the potential to feed back to and influence the disease spreading. It is…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-09-28 Jan E. Snellman , Rafael A. Barrio , Kimmo K. Kaski , Maarit J. Korpi--Lagg

This survey analyses the role of data-driven methodologies for pandemic modelling and control. We provide a roadmap from the access to epidemiological data sources to the control of epidemic phenomena. We review the available methodologies…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-08-23 Teodoro Alamo , Daniel G. Reina , Pablo Millán Gata , Victor M. Preciado , Giulia Giordano

Immune events such as infection, vaccination, and a combination of the two result in distinct time-dependent antibody responses in affected individuals. These responses and event prevalences combine non-trivially to govern antibody levels…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-04-16 Prajakta Bedekar , Rayanne A. Luke , Anthony J. Kearsley

Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-02-07 Alberto Aleta , Andreia N. S. Hisi , Sandro Meloni , Chiara Poletto , Vittoria Colizza , Yamir Moreno

We study the problem of a policymaker who aims at taming the spread of an epidemic while minimizing its associated social costs. The main feature of our model lies in the fact that the disease's transmission rate is a diffusive stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-11-04 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari