Related papers: Tipping mechanisms in a carbon cycle model
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…
A new type of noised induced phase transitions is proposed. It occurs in noisy systems with dynamical traps. Dynamical traps are regions in the phase space where the regular forces are depressed substantially. By way of an example, a simple…
Polyhomeostatic adaption occurs when evolving systems try to achieve a target distribution function for certain dynamical parameters, a generalization of the notion of homeostasis. Here we consider a single rate encoding leaky integrator…
Gene expression is a noisy process that leads to regime shift between alternative steady states among individual living cells, inducing phenotypic variability. The effects of white noise on the regime shift in bistable systems have been…
Motivated by a stochastic differential equation describing the dynamics of interfaces, we study the bifurcation behavior of a more general class of such equations. These equations are characterized by a 2-dimensional phase space (describing…
Current techniques for predicting climate change are mainly based on "massive" deterministic numerical modeling. However, the ocean-atmosphere system is a so-called "complex system", made up of a large number of interacting elements. We…
We study the behaviour at tipping points close to (smoothed) non-smooth fold bifurcations in one-dimensional oscillatory forced systems. The focus is the Stommel-Box, and related climate models, which are piecewise-smooth continuous…
Consider a dynamical system given by a planar differential equation, which exhibits an unstable periodic orbit surrounding a stable periodic orbit. It is known that under random perturbations, the distribution of locations where the…
Previous studies have shown that rate-induced transitions can occur in pullback attractors of systems subject to "parameter shifts" between two asymptotically steady values of a system parameter. For cases where the attractors limit to…
Considerable evidence suggests that anticipating sudden shifts from one state to another in bistable dynamical systems is a challenging task, examples include ecosystems, financial markets, complex diseases, etc. In this paper, we…
The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that…
An application of optimal control theory results in a lower bound on the speed $|\dot{\lambda}(t)|$ that must be attained at least once by any external forcing function that induces tipping in the asymptotically autonomous scalar ODE…
We have investigated noise-induced transition of atoms between double or triple phase-space attractors that are produced in the parametrically driven magneto-optical trap. The transition rates between two or three dynamic attractors,…
Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…
Social behaviour models are increasingly integrated into climate change studies, and the significance of climate tipping points for `runaway' climate change is well recognised. However, there has been insufficient focus on tipping points in…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
Tipping points are critical thresholds of parameters where tiny perturbations can lead to abrupt and large qualitative changes in the systems. Many real-world systems that exhibit tipping behavior can be represented as networks of…
We consider the problem of stochastic exit from a planar domain, whose boundary is an unstable periodic orbit, and which contains a stable periodic orbit. This problem arises when investigating the distribution of noise-induced phase slips…
A tipping point can be defined as an abrupt shift in the properties or behaviour of a system. Tipping points in complex systems from a wide variety of scientific disciplines have been compared to phase transitions in physics, but consistent…
We investigate how nonlinear behaviour (both of forcing in time and of the system itself) can affect the skill of early warning signals to predict tipping in (directionally) coupled bistable systems when using measures based on critical…