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Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) advance generalization and data efficiency in time series forecasting by unified large-scale pretraining. But TSFMs remain lacking when adapting to specific downstream forecasting tasks for two reasons.…

We propose TimePre, a simple framework that unifies the efficiency of Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)-based models with the distributional flexibility of Multiple Choice Learning (MCL) for Probabilistic Time-Series Forecasting (PTSF).…

We develop and compare model-error representation schemes derived from data assimilation increments and nudging tendencies in multi-decadal simulations of the community atmosphere model, version 6. Each scheme applies a bias correction…

Modeling nonstationary processes is of paramount importance to many scientific disciplines including environmental science, ecology, and finance, among others. Consequently, flexible methodology that provides accurate estimation across a…

Time-series forecasting models often encounter abrupt changes in a given period of time which generally occur due to unexpected or unknown events. Despite their scarce occurrences in the training set, abrupt changes incur loss that…

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in various real-world applications and has attracted significant attention in recent decades. While recent methods have achieved remarkable accuracy by incorporating advanced inductive biases and…

Current Transformer methods for Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting (MTSF) are all based on the conventional attention mechanism. They involve sequence embedding and performing a linear projection of Q, K, and V, and then computing…

Rapid expansion of model size has emerged as a key challenge in time series forecasting. From early Transformer with tens of megabytes to recent architectures like TimesNet with thousands of megabytes, performance gains have often come at…

The fuzzy linear regression (FLR) modeling was first proposed making use of linear programming and then followed by many improvements in a variety of ways. In almost all approaches changing the meters, objective function, and restrictions…

We provide a new approach to measure power spectra and reconstruct time series in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) based on the fact that the Fourier transform of AGN stochastic variations is a series of complex Gaussian random variables. The…

In time-series analysis, nonlinear temporal misalignment remains a pivotal challenge that forestalls even simple averaging. Since its introduction, the Diffeomorphic Temporal Alignment Net (DTAN), which we first introduced (Weber et al.,…

Due to the dynamics of underlying physics and external influences, the uncertainty of time series often varies over time. However, existing Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) often fail to capture this non-stationary nature,…

Quantile Factor Models (QFM) represent a new class of factor models for high-dimensional panel data. Unlike Approximate Factor Models (AFM), where only location-shifting factors can be extracted, QFM also allow to recover unobserved factors…

This brief aims at the issue of globally composite-learning-based neural fast finite-time (F-FnT) tracking control for a class of uncertain systems in strict-feedback form subject to nonlinearly periodic disturbances. First, uncertain…

Unsteady Aerodynamic Shape Optimization presents new challenges in terms of sensitivity analysis of time-dependent objective functions. In this work, we consider periodic unsteady flows governed by the URANS equations. Hence, the resulting…

Time series forecasters are widely used across various domains. Among them, MLP (multi-layer perceptron)-based forecasters have been proven to be more robust to noise compared to Transformer-based forecasters. However, MLP struggles to…

Training an object detector on a data-rich domain and applying it to a data-poor one with limited performance drop is highly attractive in industry, because it saves huge annotation cost. Recent research on unsupervised domain adaptive…

The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…

Adapting models pre-trained on large-scale datasets is a proven way to reach strong performance quickly for down-stream tasks. However, the growth of state-of-the-art mod-els makes traditional full fine-tuning unsuitable and difficult,…

This paper is concerned with backward problem for nonlinear space fractional diffusion with additive noise on the right-hand side and the final value. To regularize the instable solution, we develop some new regularized method for solving…