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The marginal likelihood, or evidence, plays a central role in Bayesian model selection, yet remains notoriously challenging to compute in likelihood-free settings. While Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) techniques such as Sequential Neural…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-14 Paul Bastide , Arnaud Estoup , Jean-Michel Marin , Julien Stoehr

Unbinned likelihood fits aim at maximizing the information one can extract from experimental data, yet their application in realistic statistical analyses is often hindered by the computational cost of profiling systematic uncertainties.…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-02-16 Davide Valsecchi , Mauro Donegà , Rainer Wallny

Bayesian neural networks offer better estimates of model uncertainty compared to frequentist networks. However, inference involving Bayesian models requires multiple instantiations or sampling of the network parameters, requiring…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-01-30 Prabodh Katti , Anagha Nimbekar , Chen Li , Amit Acharyya , Bashir M. Al-Hashimi , Bipin Rajendran

The simulation cost for cosmological simulation-based inference can be decreased by combining simulation sets of varying fidelity. We propose an approach to such multi-fidelity inference based on feature matching and knowledge distillation.…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-07-02 Leander Thiele , Adrian E. Bayer , Naoya Takeishi

Concurrent advances across fields such as organoid technology, Microelectrode Arrays (MEAs), neuromorphic computing, and machine learning have given rise to a groundbreaking research paradigm: Synthetic Biological Intelligence (SBI). SBI…

Bayesian QU-fitting is among the most accurate approaches for line-of-sight Faraday inference, but its per-pixel computational cost has made survey-scale application infeasible. QU-fitting is an alternative to Faraday synthesis with…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-05-28 Arpan Pal , Preshanth Jagannathan

Indirect inference (II) is a methodology for estimating the parameters of an intractable (generative) model on the basis of an alternative parametric (auxiliary) model that is both analytically and computationally easier to deal with. Such…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-05-14 Christopher C. Drovandi , Anthony N. Pettitt , Anthony Lee

Standard cosmological analysis, which relies on two-point statistics, fails to extract the full information of the data. This limits our ability to constrain with precision cosmological parameters. Thus, recent years have seen a paradigm…

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is a widespread approach to simulate complex systems. Advancements in computational processing and storage have facilitated the adoption of ABMs across many fields; however, ABMs face challenges that limit their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-06 M Lopes Alves , Joel Dyer , Doyne Farmer , Michael Wooldridge , Anisoara Calinescu

Seismicity catalogs are larger than ever due to an explosion of techniques for enhanced earthquake detection and an abundance of high-quality datasets. Bayesian inference is an appealing framework for locating earthquakes due to its ability…

Geophysics · Physics 2026-02-02 Zachary E. Ross , John D. Wilding , Kamyar Azizzadenesheli , Aitaro Kato

Simulation plays a central role in scientific discovery. In many applications, the bottleneck is no longer running a simulator; it is choosing among large families of plausible simulators, each corresponding to different forward…

We present a novel probabilistic programming framework that couples directly to existing large-scale simulators through a cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol, which allows general-purpose inference engines to record and control…

Reasoning on large and complex real-world models is a computationally difficult task, yet one that is required for effective use of many AI applications. A plethora of inference algorithms have been developed that work well on specific…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-06-13 Avi Pfeffer , Brian Ruttenberg , William Kretschmer

NeuroAI is an emerging field at the intersection of neuroscience and artificial intelligence, where insights from brain function guide the design of intelligent systems. A central area within this field is synthetic biological intelligence…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-10 Dhruvik Patel , Md Sayed Tanveer , Jesus Gonzalez-Ferrer , Alon Loeffler , Brett J. Kagan , Mohammed A. Mostajo-Radji , Ge Wang

Modern Bayesian inference involves a mixture of computational methods for estimating, validating, and drawing conclusions from probabilistic models as part of principled workflows. An overarching motif of many Bayesian methods is that they…

Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) is introduced to expand the commonly used analytic variational distribution family, by mixing the variational parameter with a flexible distribution. This mixing distribution can assume any density…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-30 Mingzhang Yin , Mingyuan Zhou

Bayesian methods have proved powerful in many applications for the inference of model parameters from data. These methods are based on Bayes' theorem, which itself is deceptively simple. However, in practice the computations required are…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-10 Michael A. Chappell , Mark W. Woolrich

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a powerful method for optimizing black-box functions by combining prior knowledge with ongoing function evaluations. BO constructs a probabilistic surrogate model of the objective function given the covariates,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Roi Naveiro , Becky Tang

The importance of higher-order relations is widely recognized in a large number of real-world systems. However, annotating them is a tedious and sometimes impossible task. Consequently, current approaches for data modelling either ignore…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-06 Iulia Duta , Pietro Liò

Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) tempers a loss with a temperature $\beta > 0$ to mitigate overconfidence and improve robustness under model misspecification, but existing GBI methods typically rely on costly MCMC or SDE-based samplers…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-25 Shiyi Sun , Geoff K. Nicholls , Jeong Eun Lee