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Reliable precipitation nowcasting is critical for weather-sensitive decision-making, yet neural weather models (NWMs) can produce poorly calibrated probabilistic forecasts. Standard calibration metrics such as the expected calibration error…

Understanding environmental changes from remote sensing imagery is vital for climate resilience, urban planning, and ecosystem monitoring. Yet, current vision language models (VLMs) overlook causal signals from environmental sensors, rely…

Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…

Climate change demands effective legislative action to mitigate its impacts. This study explores the application of machine learning (ML) to understand the progression of climate policy from announcement to adoption, focusing on policies…

Weather forecasting is one of the cornerstones of meteorological work. In this paper, we present a new benchmark dataset named Weather2K, which aims to make up for the deficiencies of existing weather forecasting datasets in terms of…

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank among the most destructive natural hazards, yet their forecasting faces fundamental trade-offs: numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are computationally prohibitive and struggle to leverage historical data,…

Forecasting the wide variety of high-impact weather events experienced globally is a challenge for both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and it is critical that such models be properly verified…

Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…

The Multimodal Learning for Earth and Environment Challenge (MultiEarth 2022) will be the first competition aimed at the monitoring and analysis of deforestation in the Amazon rainforest at any time and in any weather conditions. The goal…

Weather forecasting is fundamentally challenged by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere, necessitating probabilistic approaches to quantify uncertainty. While traditional ensemble prediction (EPS) addresses this through computationally…

Weather radar is the primary tool used by forecasters to detect and warn for tornadoes in near-real time. In order to assist forecasters in warning the public, several algorithms have been developed to automatically detect tornadic…

As climate change intensifies, the urgency for accurate global-scale disaster predictions grows. This research presents a novel multimodal disaster prediction framework, combining weather statistics, satellite imagery, and textual insights.…

Multi-modal Event Reasoning (MMER) endeavors to endow machines with the ability to comprehend intricate event relations across diverse data modalities. MMER is fundamental and underlies a wide broad of applications. Despite extensive…

While machine learning-based weather prediction (MLWP) has achieved significant advancements, research on assimilating real observations or ensemble forecasts within MLWP models remains limited. We introduce ClimaX-LETKF, the first purely…

We assess empirical models in climate econometrics using modern statistical learning techniques. Existing approaches are prone to outliers, ignore sample dependencies, and lack principled model selection. To address these issues, we…

We present a new framework for the assessment and calibration of medium range ensemble temperature forecasts. The method is based on maximising the likelihood of a simple parametric model for the temperature distribution, and leads to some…

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…

Climate change is a major socio-scientific issue shapes public decision-making and policy discussions. As large language models (LLMs) increasingly serve as an interface for accessing climate knowledge, whether existing benchmarks reflect…

Existing vision-language models (VLMs) have demonstrated impressive performance in reasoning-based segmentation. However, current benchmarks are primarily constructed from high-quality images captured under idealized conditions. This raises…

We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…