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Counterfactual thinking describes a psychological phenomenon that people re-infer the possible results with different solutions about things that have already happened. It helps people to gain more experience from mistakes and thus to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-19 Yue Wang , Yao Wan , Chenwei Zhang , Lixin Cui , Lu Bai , Philip S. Yu

Counterfactual inference considers a hypothetical intervention in a parallel world that shares some evidence with the factual world. If the evidence specifies a conditional distribution on a manifold, counterfactuals may be analytically…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-03 Juha Karvanen , Santtu Tikka , Matti Vihola

Semantic representation and inference is essential for Natural Language Processing (NLP). The state of the art for semantic representation and inference is deep learning, and particularly Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), Convolutional…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-06-16 Dongsheng Wang

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) offer a tangible and actionable way to explain recommendations by showing users a "what-if" scenario that demonstrates how small changes in their history would alter the system's output. However, existing…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2025-08-13 Arjan Hasami , Masoud Mansoury

CounterFactual (CF) visual explanations try to find images similar to the query image that change the decision of a vision system to a specified outcome. Existing methods either require inference-time optimization or joint training with a…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-03-30 Saeed Khorram , Li Fuxin

Machine-learning models, which are known to accurately predict patterns from large datasets, are crucial in decision making. Consequently, counterfactual explanations-methods explaining predictions by introducing input perturbations-have…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Yuta Sumiya , Hayaru shouno

Despite the increasing effectiveness of language models, their reasoning capabilities remain underdeveloped. In particular, causal reasoning through counterfactual question answering is lacking. This work aims to bridge this gap. We first…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Alihan Hüyük , Xinnuo Xu , Jacqueline Maasch , Aditya V. Nori , Javier González

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Deep learning models tend not to be out-of-distribution robust primarily due to their reliance on spurious features to solve the task. Counterfactual data augmentations provide a general way of (approximately) achieving representations that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-15 S Chandra Mouli , Yangze Zhou , Bruno Ribeiro

Causal and temporal reasoning about video dynamics is a challenging problem. While neuro-symbolic models that combine symbolic reasoning with neural-based perception and prediction have shown promise, they exhibit limitations, especially in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-13 Adam Ishay , Zhun Yang , Joohyung Lee , Ilgu Kang , Dongjae Lim

We present a new method for counterfactual explanations (CFEs) based on Bayesian optimisation that applies to both classification and regression models. Our method is a globally convergent search algorithm with support for arbitrary…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-30 Thomas Spooner , Danial Dervovic , Jason Long , Jon Shepard , Jiahao Chen , Daniele Magazzeni

Hypergraph neural networks (HGNNs) effectively model higher-order interactions in many real-world systems but remain difficult to interpret, limiting their deployment in high-stakes settings. We introduce CF-HyperGNNExplainer, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Fabiano Veglianti , Lorenzo Antonelli , Gabriele Tolomei

Machine learning (ML) models play an increasingly prevalent role in many software engineering tasks. However, because most models are now powered by opaque deep neural networks, it can be difficult for developers to understand why the model…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2021-11-11 Jürgen Cito , Isil Dillig , Vijayaraghavan Murali , Satish Chandra

Counterfactuals refer to minimally edited inputs that cause a model's prediction to change, serving as a promising approach to explaining the model's behavior. Large language models (LLMs) excel at generating English counterfactuals and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-07 Qianli Wang , Van Bach Nguyen , Yihong Liu , Fedor Splitt , Nils Feldhus , Christin Seifert , Hinrich Schütze , Sebastian Möller , Vera Schmitt

Despite their enormous predictive power, machine learning models are often unsuitable for applications in regulated industries such as finance, due to their limited capacity to provide explanations. While model-agnostic frameworks such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-03 Joshua S. Harvey , Guanchao Feng , Sai Anusha Meesala , Tina Zhao , Dhagash Mehta

The notion of causality assumes a paramount position within the realm of human cognition. Over the past few decades, there has been significant advancement in the domain of causal effect estimation across various disciplines, including but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-24 Zongyu Li , Xiaobo Guo , Siwei Qiang

Despite advancements in large language models (LLMs), non-factual responses still persist in fact-seeking question answering. Unlike extensive studies on post-hoc detection of these responses, this work studies non-factuality prediction…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-08-19 Yanling Wang , Haoyang Li , Hao Zou , Jing Zhang , Xinlei He , Qi Li , Ke Xu

Estimating an individual's counterfactual outcomes under interventions is a challenging task for traditional causal inference and supervised learning approaches when the outcome is high-dimensional (e.g. gene expressions, facial images) and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Yulun Wu , Louie McConnell , Claudia Iriondo

This work showcases a new approach for causal discovery by leveraging user experiments and recent advances in photo-realistic image editing, demonstrating a potential of identifying causal factors and understanding complex systems…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-08-23 Tao Li

Recent papers in explainable AI have made a compelling case for counterfactual modes of explanation. While counterfactual explanations appear to be extremely effective in some instances, they are formally equivalent to adversarial examples.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-12-21 Kieran Browne , Ben Swift
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