Related papers: Non-linear dependence and Granger causality: A vin…

Building higher-dimensional copulas is generally recognized as a difficult problem. Regular-vines using bivariate copulas provide a flexible class of high-dimensional dependency models. In large dimensions, the drawback of the model is the…

The bivariate copulas that describe the dependencies and partial dependencies of lagged variables in strictly stationary, first-order GARCH-type processes are investigated. It is shown that the copulas of symmetric GARCH processes are…

A challenging problem when studying a dynamical system is to find the interdependencies among its individual components. Several algorithms have been proposed to detect directed dynamical influences between time series. Two of the most used…

In our previous study we have presented an approach to studying lead--lag effect in financial markets using information and network theories. Methodology presented there, as well as previous studies using Pearson's correlation for the same…

We consider extension of Granger causality to nonlinear bivariate time series. In this frame, if the prediction error of the first time series is reduced by including measurements from the second time series, then the second time series is…

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience.…

Concepts of Granger causality (GC) and Granger autonomy (GA) are central to assess the dynamics of coupled physiologic processes. While causality measures have been already proposed and applied in time and frequency domains, measures…

Granger causality is widely used for causal structure discovery in complex systems from multivariate time series data. Traditional Granger causality tests based on linear models often fail to detect even mild non-linear causal…

The dynamics of a power system with a significant presence of renewable energy resources are growing increasingly nonlinear. This nonlinearity is a result of the intermittent nature of these resources and the switching behavior of their…

A pair-copula construction is a decomposition of a multivariate copula into a structured system, called regular vine, of bivariate copulae or pair-copulae. The standard practice is to model these pair-copulae parametrically, which comes at…

Granger causality is a fundamental technique for causal inference in time series data, commonly used in the social and biological sciences. Typical operationalizations of Granger causality make a strong assumption that every time point of…

The concept of Granger causality is increasingly being applied for the characterization of directional interactions in different applications. A multivariate framework for estimating Granger causality is essential in order to account for…

Granger causal modeling is an emerging topic that can uncover Granger causal relationship behind multivariate time series data. In many real-world systems, it is common to encounter a large amount of multivariate time series data collected…

Uncertain information on input parameters of reliability models is usually modeled by considering these parameters as random, and described by marginal distributions and a dependence structure of these variables. In numerous real-world…

We develop an LM test for Granger causality in high-dimensional VAR models based on penalized least squares estimations. To obtain a test retaining the appropriate size after the variable selection done by the lasso, we propose a…

Identifying risk spillovers in financial markets is of great importance for assessing systemic risk and portfolio management. Granger causality in tail (or in risk) tests whether past extreme events of a time series help predicting future…

We introduce a new class of processes for the evaluation of multivariate equity derivatives. The proposed setting is well suited for the application of the standard copula function theory to processes, rather than variables, and easily…

Vine copulas are sophisticated models for multivariate distributions and are increasingly used in machine learning. To facilitate their integration into modern ML pipelines, we introduce the vine computational graph, a DAG that abstracts…

We introduce a new goodness-of-fit test for regular vine (R-vine) copula models. R-vine copulas are a very flexible class of multivariate copulas based on a pair-copula construction (PCC). The test arises from the information matrix…

This paper analyzes the direction of the causality between crude oil, gold and stock markets for the largest economy in the world with respect to such markets, the US. To do so, we apply non-linear Granger causality tests. We find a…