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Bayesian inference provides a framework to combine various model components with shared parameters, allowing joint uncertainty estimation and the use of all available data sources. Unfortunately, misspecification of any part of the model…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-13 Emilia Pompe , Mikołaj J. Kasprzak , Pierre E. Jacob

In this paper we adopt the familiar sparse, high-dimensional linear regression model and focus on the important but often overlooked task of prediction. In particular, we consider a new empirical Bayes framework that incorporates data in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Ryan Martin , Yiqi Tang

We consider a class of nonlinear elliptic problems associated with models in biophysics, which are described by the Poisson-Boltzmann equation (PBE). We prove mathematical correctness of the problem, study a suitable class of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-12-15 Johannes Kraus , Svetoslav Nakov , Sergey Repin

In a sparse stochastic block model with two communities of unequal sizes we derive two posterior concentration inequalities, that imply (1) posterior (almost-)exact recovery of the community structure under sparsity bounds comparable to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-08-17 B. J. K. Kleijn , J. van Waaij

We study frequentist properties of a Bayesian high-dimensional multivariate linear regression model with correlated responses. The predictors are separated into many groups and the group structure is pre-determined. Two features of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-13 Bo Ning , Seonghyun Jeong , Subhashis Ghosal

We propose a robust and scalable framework for variational Bayes (VB) that effectively handles outliers and contamination of arbitrary nature in large datasets. Our approach divides the dataset into disjoint subsets, computes the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-18 Carlos Misael Madrid Padilla , Shitao Fan , Lizhen Lin

We prove new, general versions of Bernstein-von Mises theorem for both well-specified and misspecified models when the log-likelihood is concave in the parameter and the prior distribution is log-concave. Unlike classical versions of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Victor-Emmanuel Brunel

We introduce a novel Bayesian estimator for the class proportion in an unlabeled dataset, based on the targeted learning framework. Our procedure requires the specification of a prior (and outputs a posterior) only for the target of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-26 Iván Díaz , Oleksander Savenkov , Hooman Kamel

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful interpolation technique due to its flexibility in capturing non-linearity. In this paper, we provide a general framework for understanding the frequentist coverage of point-wise and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-08-17 Yun Yang , Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati

This paper revisits the prominent Fisher, Wilks, and Bernstein -- von Mises (BvM) results from different viewpoints. Particular issues to address are: nonasymptotic framework with just one finite sample, possible model misspecification, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-28 Vladimir Spokoiny

We study full Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional linear regression. We adopt data-dependent empirical priors introduced in [1]. In their paper, these priors have nice posterior contraction properties and are easy to compute. Our paper…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-02-14 Xiao Fang , Malay Ghosh

This paper concerns the approximation of probability measures on $\mathbf{R}^d$ with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Given an admissible target measure, we show the existence of the best approximation, with respect to this…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-06-26 Yulong Lu , Andrew M. Stuart , Hendrik Weber

Online learning is an inferential paradigm in which parameters are updated incrementally from sequentially available data, in contrast to batch learning, where the entire dataset is processed at once. In this paper, we assume that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Jeyong Lee , Junhyeok Choi , Minwoo Chae

In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian approach for nonparametric estimation in Wicksell's problem. This has important applications in astronomy for estimating the distribution of the positions of the stars in a galaxy given projected…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-01 Francesco Gili , Geurt Jongbloed , Aad van der Vaart

For $\mathcal{O}$ a bounded domain in $\mathbb{R}^d$ and a given smooth function $g:\mathcal{O}\to\mathbb{R}$, we consider the statistical nonlinear inverse problem of recovering the conductivity $f>0$ in the divergence form equation $$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-09 Matteo Giordano , Richard Nickl

In this paper, we obtain quantitative, non-asymptotic, and data-dependent \textit{Bernstein-von Mises type} bounds on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution in exponential family models with arbitrary centring and scaling.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Adrian Fischer , Robert E. Gaunt , Gesine Reinert , Yvik Swan

The martingale posterior framework is a generalization of Bayesian inference where one elicits a sequence of one-step ahead predictive densities instead of the likelihood and prior. Posterior sampling then involves the imputation of unseen…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-02 Edwin Fong , Andrew Yiu

Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-06 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller

We solve the inverse problem of deblurring a pixelized image of Jupiter using regularized deconvolution and by sample-based Bayesian inference. By efficiently sampling the marginal posterior distribution for hyperparameters, then the full…

Computation · Statistics 2016-02-24 Colin Fox , Richard A. Norton

This paper aims to examine the characteristics of the posterior distribution of covariance/precision matrices in a "large $p$, large $n$" scenario, where $p$ represents the number of variables and $n$ is the sample size. Our analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Partha Sarkar , Kshitij Khare , Malay Ghosh , Matt P. Wand
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