Related papers: Credit Spreads' Term Structure: Stochastic Modelin…
In this three-part series of papers, we argue that the conventional spread measures are not well defined for credit-risky bonds and introduce a set of credit term structures which correct for the biases associated with the strippable cash…
It is well known that the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) stochastic model to study the term structure of interest rates, as introduced in 1985, is inadequate for modelling the current market environment with negative short interest rates.…
We address the so-called calibration problem which consists of fitting in a tractable way a given model to a specified term structure like, e.g., yield or default probability curves. Time-homogeneous jump-diffusions like Vasicek or…
We give a comprehensive review of credit term structure modeling methodologies. The conventional approach to modeling credit term structure is summarized and shown to be equivalent to a particular type of the reduced form credit risk model,…
This paper offers a new class of models of the term structure of interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, constrained in such a way as to keep the forward rate curve continuous.…
Explicitly taking into account the risk incurred when borrowing at a shorter tenor versus lending at a longer tenor ("roll-over risk"), we construct a stochastic model framework for the term structure of interest rates in which a frequency…
We develop and test a fast and accurate semi-analytical formula for single-name default swaptions in the context of a shifted square root jump diffusion (SSRJD) default intensity model. The model can be calibrated to the CDS term structure…
The term structure of credit spreads is studied with an aim to predict its future movements. A completely new approach to tackle this problem is presented, which utilizes nonlinear parametric models. The Brain-Cousens regression model with…
The notion of a credit spread curve is fundamental in fixed income investing, but in practice it is not `given' and needs to be constructed from bond prices either for a particular issuer, or for a sector rating-by-rating. Rather than…
The hypothesis that committed revolving credit lines with fixed spreads can provide firms with interest rate insurance is a standard feature of models on these credit facilities' interest rate structure. Nevertheless, this hypothesis has…
The credit spread is a key indicator in bond investments, offering valuable insights for fixed-income investors to devise effective trading strategies. This study proposes a novel credit spread forecasting model leveraging ensemble learning…
The two main approaches in credit risk are the structural approach pioneered in Merton (1974) and the reduced-form framework proposed in Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) and in Artzner & Delbaen (1995). The goal of this article is to provide a…
We model the term structure of the forward default intensity and the default density by using L\'evy random fields, which allow us to consider the credit derivatives with an after-default recovery payment. As applications, we study the…
This study develops an integrated stochastic modeling framework for pricing short and medium-maturity equity options and assessing interest-rate risk using the Heston (1993), Bates (1996), and CIR (1985) models. We calibrate the Heston…
We present a family of models for the term structure of interest rates which describe the interest rate curve as a stochastic process in a Hilbert space. We start by decomposing the deformations of the term structure into the variations of…
We introduce a novel class of credit risk models in which the drift of the survival process of a firm is a linear function of the factors. The prices of defaultable bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) are linear-rational in the factors.…
We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…
We introduce a dynamic and stochastic interbank model with an endogenous notion of distress contagion, arising from rational worries about future defaults and ensuing losses. This entails a mark-to-market valuation adjustment for interbank…
Given the importance of continuous-time stochastic volatility models to describe the dynamics of interest rates, we propose a goodness-of-fit test for the parametric form of the drift and diffusion functions, based on a marked empirical…
We propose two structural models for stochastic losses given default which allow to model the credit losses of a portfolio of defaultable financial instruments. The credit losses are integrated into a structural model of default events…