Related papers: Credit Spreads' Term Structure: Stochastic Modelin…
We develop a model for the dynamic evolution of default-free and defaultable interest rates in a LIBOR framework. Utilizing the class of affine processes, this model produces positive LIBOR rates and spreads, while the dynamics are…
This paper develops a two-dimensional structural framework for valuing credit default swaps and corporate bonds in the presence of default contagion. Modelling the values of related firms as correlated geometric Brownian motions with…
The proposed model is aimed to reveal important patterns in the behavior of a simplified financial system. The patterns could be detected as regular cycles consisting of debt bubbles and crises. Financial cycles have a well defined…
We consider the problem of modelling the term structure of defaultable bonds, under minimal assumptions on the default time. In particular, we do not assume the existence of a default intensity and we therefore allow for the possibility of…
The lifetime behaviour of loans is notoriously difficult to model, which can compromise a bank's financial reserves against future losses, if modelled poorly. Therefore, we present a data-driven comparative study amongst three techniques in…
In this work, we consider the issue of pricing exchange options and spread options with stochastic interest rates. We provide the closed form solution for the exchange option price when interest rate is stochastic. Our result holds when…
We set up a structural model to study credit risk for a portfolio containing several or many credit contracts. The model is based on a jump--diffusion process for the risk factors, i.e. for the company assets. We also include correlations…
In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…
In this paper, we analyze the diversity of term structure functions (e.g., yield curves, swap curves, credit curves) constructed in a process which complies with some admissible properties: arbitrage-freeness, ability to fit market quotes…
Under the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) 9, credit losses ought to be recognised timeously and accurately. This requirement belies a certain degree of dynamicity when estimating the constituent parts of a credit loss…
We introduce the concept of no-arbitrage in a credit risk market under ambiguity considering an intensity-based framework. We assume the default intensity is not exactly known but lies between an upper and lower bound. By means of the…
Spatiotemporal data analysis is pivotal across various domains, such as transportation, meteorology, and healthcare. The data collected in real-world scenarios are often incomplete due to device malfunctions and network errors.…
Closure modeling - the statistical modeling of missing dynamics in the natural sciences and engineering - is a growing and active area of research. Existing methods for closure modeling are often computationally prohibitive, lack…
In the Vasicek credit portfolio model, tail risk is driven primarily by the asset-correlation parameter, yet empirically is subject to correlation risk. We propose a stochastic correlation extension of the Vasicek framework in which the…
Due to the lack of reliable market information, building financial term-structures may be associated with a significant degree of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new term-structure interpolation method that extends classical spline…
Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…
The goal of this paper is to specify dynamic term structure models with discrete tenor structure for credit portfolios in a top-down setting driven by time-inhomogeneous L\'evy processes. We provide a new framework, conditions for absence…
The market practice of extrapolating different term structures from different instruments lacks a rigorous justification in terms of cash flows structure and market observables. In this paper, we integrate our previous consistent theory for…
The initial Climate-Extended Risk Model (CERM) addresses the estimate of climate-related financial risk embedded within a bank loan portfolio, through a climatic extension of the Basel II IRB model. It uses a Gaussian copula model…
We derive a closed-form approximation for the credit default swap (CDS) spread in the two-dimensional shifted square-root diffusion (SSRD) model using asymptotic coefficient expansion technique to approximate solutions of nonlinear partial…