Related papers: Daniel Litt's Probability Puzzle
This paper proposes new formulas for the probabilities of causation difined by Pearl (2000). Tian and Pearl (2000a, 2000b) showed how to bound the quantities of the probabilities of causation from experimental and observational data, under…
This paper considers a two-color, single-draw urn model with two types of balls, denoted type $1$ and type $2$, with initial counts $Y^1_0\in N^+$ and $Y^2_0\in N^+$, respectively. At each discrete time step, a ball is drawn uniformly at…
We present a conjecture about partitions, with a very elementary formulation.
We show that a modified Relativity Principle could explain in a "classical" way the strange correlations of entangled photons. We propose a gedanken experiment with balls and boxes that predicts the same distribution of probability of the…
A problem dating back to Boole [Laws of Thought, Walton & Maberly,1854] is what can be computed about the probability of a finite union of events when given as input the probabilities of intersections of some of the events. The modern…
(l) I have enough evidence to render the sentence S probable. (la) So, relative to what I know, it is rational of me to believe S. (2) Now that I have more evidence, S may no longer be probable. (2a) So now, relative to what I know, it is…
This note is an observation that the LLL algorithm applied to prime powers can be used to find "good" examples for the ABC and Szpiro conjectures.
Consider a finite undirected graph and place an urn with balls of two colours at each vertex. At every discrete time step, for each urn, a fixed number of balls are drawn from that same urn with probability $p$, and from a randomly chosen…
We describe some recent approaches to likelihood based inference in the presence of nuisance parameters. Our approach is based on plotting the likelihood function and the $p$-value function, using recently developed third order…
In his stimulating article on the reasons for two puzzling observations about the behaviour of interest rates, exchange rates and the rate of inflation, Charles Engel (2016) puts forward an explanation that rests on the concept of a…
Let $E$ be a bounded open subset of $\mathbb{R}^n$. We study the following questions: For i.i.d. samples $X_1, \dots, X_N$ drawn uniformly from $E$, what is the probability that $\cup_i \mathbf{B}(X_i, \delta)$, the union of $\delta$-balls…
This note gives an elementary exposition of a variant of the spread polynomials in terms of Fibonacci and Lucas polynomials.
An urn scheme is a probabilistic model in which balls are placed into urns sequentially and independently of each other. All balls share the same probability distribution for hitting the urns. In the simplest case, there is a finite number…
Developing a better understanding of surprising or counterintuitive phenomena has constituted a significant portion of deep learning research in recent years. These include double descent, grokking, and the lottery ticket hypothesis --…
Inspired by the theory of desirable gambles that is used to model uncertainty in the field of imprecise probabilities, I present a theory of desirable things. Its aim is to model a subject's beliefs about which things are desirable. What…
One can often encounter claims that classical (Kolmogorovian) probability theory cannot handle, or even is contradicted by, certain empirical findings or substantive theories. This note joins several previous attempts to explain that these…
The geometry of unit $N$-dimensional $\ell_{p}$ balls has been intensively investigated in the past decades. A particular topic of interest has been the study of the asymptotics of their projections. Apart from their intrinsic interest,…
Classical probability theory is formulated using sets. In this paper, we extend classical probability theory with propositional computability logic. Unlike other formalisms, computability logic is built on the notion of events/games, which…
This paper considers the notion of possible events which are insignificant in probabilistic analysis (i.e. events that have zero probability). The paper discusses the method of modal logic based on "possible worlds" and discusses a…
This is an introduction to some of the most probabilistic aspects of free probability theory.