Related papers: Forecasting Age Distribution of Deaths: Cumulative…

This paper considers the problem of forecasting mortality rates. A large number of models have already been proposed for this task, but they generally have the disadvantage of either estimating the model in a two-step process, possibly…

This paper presents a novel approach for modeling mortality rates above age 70 by proposing a mixture-based model. This model is compared to four other widely used models: the Beard, Gompertz, Makeham, and Perks models. Our model can…

A probability model is presented for the dynamics of mutation-selection balance in a haploid infinite-population infinite-sites setting sufficiently general to cover mutation-driven changes in full age-specific demographic schedules. The…

Multi-state models provide an extension of the usual survival/event-history analysis setting. In the medical domain, multi-state models give the possibility of further investigating intermediate events such as relapse and remission. In this…

Accurate forecasts of weekly mortality are essential for public health and the insurance industry. We develop a forecasting framework that extends the Lee-Carter model with age- and region-specific seasonal effects and penalized distributed…

A novel framework is proposed for handling the complex task of modelling and analysis of longitudinal, multivariate, heterogeneous clinical data. This method uses temporal abstraction to convert the data into a more appropriate form for…

The improvement of mortality projection is a pivotal topic in the diverse branches related to insurance, demography, and public policy. Motivated by the thread of Lee-Carter related models, we propose a Bayesian model to estimate and…

Aggregated health data such as claims data from health insurances become more and more available for research purposes. Estimates of excess mortality from prevalence and incidence of a chronic condition have only been possible for ages 50…

Human mortality patterns and trajectories in closely related populations are likely linked together and share similarities. It is always desirable to model them simultaneously while taking their heterogeneity into account. This paper…

Mortality rates are often disaggregated by different attributes, such as sex, state, education, religion or ethnicity. Forecasting mortality rates at the national and sub-national levels plays an important role in making social policies…

This paper investigates a nonlinear logistic model for age-structured population dynamics. The model incorporates interdependent fertility and mortality functions within a logistic framework, offering insights into stationary solutions and…

Predicting the risk of death for chronic patients is highly valuable for informed medical decision-making. This paper proposes a general framework for dynamic prediction of the risk of death of a patient given her hospitalization history,…

Diverse analysis approaches have been proposed to distinguish data missing due to death from nonresponse, and to summarize trajectories of longitudinal data truncated by death. We demonstrate how these analysis approaches arise from…

Predicting mortality-related outcomes from images offers the prospect of accessible, noninvasive, and scalable health screening. We present a method that leverages pretrained vision transformer foundation models to estimate remaining…

A theoretical framework is developed to describe the transformation that distributes probability density functions uniformly over space. In one dimension, the cumulative distribution can be used, but does not generalize to higher…

This paper considers a nonlinear model for population dynamics with age structure. The fertility rate with respect to age is non constant and has the form proposed by [17]. Moreover, its multiplicative structure and the multiplicative…

Although traditional literature on mortality modeling has focused on single countries in isolation, recent contributions have progressively moved toward joint models for multiple countries. Besides favoring borrowing of information to…

A representation of Gaussian distributed sparsely sampled longitudinal data in terms of predictive distributions for their functional principal component scores (FPCs) maps available data for each subject to a multivariate Gaussian…

The limitations resulting from the dichtomisation of continuous outcomes have been extensively described. But the need to present results based on binary outcomes in particular in health science remains. Alternatives based on the…

Small-area mortality estimation is inherently difficult, as random fluctuations from low death counts can obscure real geographic differences. We introduce a flexible model that borrows strength across age, space, and time to estimate…