English
Related papers

Related papers: Improved Catoni-Type Confidence Sequences for Esti…

200 papers

The current standard for confidence interval construction in the context of a possibly misspecified model is to use an interval based on the sandwich estimate of variance. These intervals provide asymptotically correct coverage, but…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-31 James W. Harmon , Peter D. Hoff

Upper semicontinuous (usc) functions arise in the analysis of maximization problems, distributionally robust optimization, and function identification, which includes many problems of nonparametric statistics. We establish that every usc…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-07-09 Johannes O. Royset

A uniform bounded variation estimate for finite volume approximations of the nonlinear scalar conservation law $\partial_t \alpha + \mathrm{div}(\boldsymbol{u}f(\alpha)) = 0$ in two and three spatial dimensions with an initial data of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-10-06 Gopikrishnan Chirappurathu Remesan

Stochastic estimators are fundamental to large-scale optimization, where population quantities must be inferred from noisy oracle observations. Although influential methods such as momentum, SPIDER, STORM, and PAGE have been highly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Zhankun Luo , Antesh Upadhyay , M. Berk Sahin , Sang Bin Moon , Anuran Makur , Abolfazl Hashemi

In this paper, we discuss the asymptotic behavior of the Upper Confidence Bound (UCB) algorithm in the context of multiarmed bandit problems and discuss its implication in downstream inferential tasks. While inferential tasks become…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-09 Koulik Khamaru , Cun-Hui Zhang

We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-13 Etienne Gauthier , Francis Bach , Michael I. Jordan

We analyze the one dimensional Cucker-Smale (in short CS) model with a weak singular communication weight $\psi(x) = |x|^{-\beta}$ with $\beta \in (0,1)$. We first establish a global-in-time existence of measure-valued solutions to the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2020-06-16 Young-Pil Choi , Xiongtao Zhang

Confidence sequences based on test martingales provide time-uniform uncertainty quantification for the mean of bounded IID observations without parametric distributional assumptions. Their practical efficiency, however, depends strongly on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-12 Valentin Kilian , Stefano Cortinovis , François Caron

In interference channels, channel state information (CSI) can be exploited to reduce the interference signal dimensions and thus achieve the optimal capacity scaling, i.e. degrees of freedom, promised by the interference alignment…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-01-03 Zhinan Xu , Markus Hofer , Thomas Zemen

We introduce an estimation method for the scaled skewness coefficient of the sample mean of short and long memory linear processes. This method can be extended to estimate higher moments such as curtosis coefficient of the sample mean. Also…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-25 Masoud M Nasari , Mohamedou Ould-Haye

This paper develops robust inference methods for predictive regressions that address key challenges posed by endogenously persistent or heavy-tailed regressors, as well as persistent volatility in errors. Building on the Cauchy estimation…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Rustam Ibragimov , Jihyun Kim , Anton Skrobotov

The classical asymptotic theory for parametric $M$-estimators guarantees that, in the limit of infinite sample size, the excess risk has a chi-square type distribution, even in the misspecified case. We demonstrate how self-concordance of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Dmitrii Ostrovskii , Francis Bach

In this paper we first provide a method to compute confidence intervals for the center of a piecewise normal distribution given a sample from this distribution, under certain assumptions. We then extend this method to an asymptotic setting,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-08 Shu Lu , Hongsheng Liu

We show that two popular selective inference procedures, namely data carving (Fithian et al., 2017) and selection with a randomized response (Tian et al., 2018b), when combined with the polyhedral method (Lee et al., 2016), result in…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-22 Danijel Kivaranovic , Hannes Leeb

We propose an optimal sequential methodology for obtaining confidence intervals for a binomial proportion $\theta$. Assuming that an i.i.d. random sequence of Benoulli($\theta$) trials is observed sequentially, we are interested in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-21 Tony Yaacoub , George V. Moustakides , Yajun Mei

Stochastic gradient descent (SGD) is a foundational algorithm for large-scale statistical learning and stochastic optimization. However, statistical inference based on SGD iterates remains challenging when stochastic gradients have infinite…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn , Wenhao Yang

Estimating the conditional mean function is a central task in statistical learning. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for a nonparametric class of real-valued cadlag functions with bounded sectional variation (Gill et al.,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-17 Wenxin Zhang , Junming Shi , Alan Hubbard , Mark van der Laan

Bayesian classification labels observations based on given prior information, namely class-a priori and class-conditional probabilities. Bayes' risk is the minimum expected classification cost that is achieved by the Bayes' test, the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Frank Nielsen

Conformal prediction (CP) has become a cornerstone of distribution-free uncertainty quantification, conventionally evaluated by its coverage and interval length. This work critically examines the sufficiency of these standard metrics. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-30 Yizhou Min , Yizhou Lu , Lanqi Li , Zhen Zhang , Jiaye Teng

We study invariance principles and convergence to a Gaussian limit for stochastic series of the form $S(c,Z)=\sum_{m=1}^{\infty }\sum_{\alpha _{1}<...<\alpha _{m}}c(\alpha _{1},...,\alpha _{m})\prod_{i=1}^{m}Z_{\alpha _{i}}$ where $Z_{k}$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-14 Vlad Bally , Lucia Caramellino