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Uncertainty quantification for estimation through stochastic optimization solutions in an online setting has gained popularity recently. This paper introduces a novel inference method focused on constructing confidence intervals with…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-24 Wanrong Zhu , Zhipeng Lou , Ziyang Wei , Wei Biao Wu

Convex sample approximations of chance-constrained optimization problems are considered, in which chance constraints are replaced by sets of sampled constraints. We propose a randomized sample selection strategy that allows tight bounds to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-22 Mark Cannon

Let $f(\theta, X_1),$ $ \dots,$ $ f(\theta, X_n)$ be a sequence of random elements, where $f$ is a fixed scalar function, $X_1, \dots, X_n$ are independent random variables (data), and $\theta$ is a random parameter distributed according to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-05 Ilja Kuzborskij , Kwang-Sung Jun , Yulian Wu , Kyoungseok Jang , Francesco Orabona

We examine the problem of construction of confidence intervals within the basic single-parameter, single-iteration variation of the method of quasi-optimal weights. Two kinds of distortions of such intervals due to insufficiently large…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-05-27 A. D. Morozov , A. V. Lokhov , F. V. Tkachov

Recently, Kabaila and Wijethunga assessed the performance of a confidence interval centred on a bootstrap smoothed estimator, with width proportional to an estimator of Efron's delta method approximation to the standard deviation of this…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-29 Paul Kabaila , Christeen Wijethunga

This paper presents uniform-in-time finite-sample bounds for regularized linear regression with vector-valued outputs and conditionally zero-mean subgaussian noise. By revisiting classical self-normalized martingale arguments, we obtain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-20 Léo Simpson , Katrin Baumgärtner , Johannes Köhler , Moritz Diehl

We study the task of high-dimensional entangled mean estimation in the subset-of-signals model. Specifically, given $N$ independent random points $x_1,\ldots,x_N$ in $\mathbb{R}^D$ and a parameter $\alpha \in (0, 1)$ such that each $x_i$ is…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2025-01-10 Ilias Diakonikolas , Daniel M. Kane , Sihan Liu , Thanasis Pittas

We consider the estimation of rare-event probabilities using sample proportions output by naive Monte Carlo or collected data. Unlike using variance reduction techniques, this naive estimator does not have a priori relative efficiency…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-19 Yuanlu Bai , Henry Lam

This paper proposes a statistically optimal approach for learning a function value using a confidence interval in a wide range of models, including general non-parametric estimation of an expected loss described as a stochastic programming…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-07 Arnab Ganguly , Tobias Sutter

In this paper, we propose and analyze a trust-region model-based algorithm for solving unconstrained stochastic optimization problems. Our framework utilizes random models of an objective function $f(x)$, obtained from stochastic…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-09-26 Ruobing Chen , Matt Menickelly , Katya Scheinberg

Medical imaging is spearheading the AI transformation of healthcare. Performance reporting is key to determine which methods should be translated into clinical practice. Frequently, broad conclusions are simply derived from mean performance…

In this manuscript, we address open questions raised by Dieker \& Yakir (2014), who proposed a novel method of estimation of (discrete) Pickands constants $\mathcal{H}^\delta_\alpha$ using a family of estimators $\xi^\delta_\alpha(T), T>0$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-19 Krzysztof Bisewski , Grigori Jasnovidov

This paper derives the maximum variance of a finite dataset of real numbers, given their mean, minimum and maximum. An example is provided in which the maximum variance is less than half of the Bhatia-Davis upper bound, (maximum -…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-29 Jules L. Ellis

In this article, we revisit the question of fluctuations of linear statistics of beta ensembles in the single cut and non-critical regime for general potentials $V$ under mild regularity and growth assumptions. Our main objective is to…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-03-27 Jürgen Angst , Ronan Herry , Dominique Malicet , Guillaume Poly

We study time-uniform statistical inference for parameters in stochastic approximation (SA), which encompasses a bunch of applications in optimization and machine learning. To that end, we analyze the almost-sure convergence rates of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-22 Chuhan Xie , Kaicheng Jin , Jiadong Liang , Zhihua Zhang

During recent years the interest of optimization and machine learning communities in high-probability convergence of stochastic optimization methods has been growing. One of the main reasons for this is that high-probability complexity…

We extend the notion of estimation entropy of autonomous dynamical systems proposed by Liberzon and Mitra [1] to nonlinear dynamical systems with uncertain inputs with bounded variation. We call this new notion the {$\epsilon$}-estimation…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-11-14 Hussein Sibai , Sayan Mitra

We study the problem of high-dimensional linear regression in a robust model where an $\epsilon$-fraction of the samples can be adversarially corrupted. We focus on the fundamental setting where the covariates of the uncorrupted samples are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-04 Ilias Diakonikolas , Weihao Kong , Alistair Stewart

We investigate the stability of a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method applied to the problem of sampling from a target distribution on $\mathbb{R}^d$ for large $d$. It is well known that using a single importance sampling step one produces…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-19 Alexandros Beskos , Dan Crisan , Ajay Jasra

Concentration inequalities have become increasingly popular in machine learning, probability, and statistical research. Using concentration inequalities, one can construct confidence intervals (CIs) for many quantities of interest.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-06 Hien D. Nguyen
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