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Systematic biases in General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs limit their direct applicability in regional planning, making bias correction a technically demanding but necessary step for both short-term and long-term impact assessment.…
Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…
The use of available disturbance predictions within a nominal model predictive control formulation is studied. The main challenge that arises is the loss of recursive feasibility and stability guarantees when a persistent disturbance is…
Studying extreme events and how they evolve in a changing climate is one of the most important current scientific challenges. Starting from complex climate models, a key difficulty is to be able to run long enough simulations in order to…
The emergence and impact of tipping points have garnered significant interest in both the social and natural sciences. Despite widespread recognition of the importance of feedbacks between human and natural systems, it is often assumed that…
Nonlinear dynamical systems may be exposed to tipping points, critical thresholds at which small changes in the external inputs or in the systems parameters abruptly shift the system to an alternative state with a contrasting dynamical…
Climate projections continue to be marred by large uncertainties, which originate in processes that need to be parameterized, such as clouds, convection, and ecosystems. But rapid progress is now within reach. New computational tools and…
In an environmental framework, extreme values of certain spatio-temporal processes, for example wind speeds, are the main cause of severe damage in property, such as electrical networks, transport and agricultural infrastructures.…
Solution of Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model of dynamical system may not agree with its observed values. Often this discrepancy can be attributed to unmodeled forcings in the evolution rule of the dynamical system. In this…
This paper explores transverse coordinates for the purpose of orbitally stabilizing periodic motions of nonlinear, control-affine dynamical systems. It is shown that the dynamics of any (minimal or excessive) set of transverse coordinates,…
Atmospheric turbulence, a common phenomenon in daily life, is primarily caused by the uneven heating of the Earth's surface. This phenomenon results in distorted and blurred acquired images or videos and can significantly impact downstream…
Atmospheric aerosols influence the Earth's climate, primarily by affecting cloud formation and scattering visible radiation. However, aerosol-related physical processes in climate simulations are highly uncertain. Constraining these…
This paper presents a novel centralized, variational data assimilation approach for calibrating transient dynamic models in electrical power systems, focusing on load model parameters. With the increasing importance of inverter-based…
We show that probabilistic weather forecasts of site specific temperatures can be dramatically improved by using seasonally varying rather than constant calibration parameters.
Tipping elements in the climate system are large-scale subregions of the Earth that might possess threshold behavior under global warming with large potential impacts on human societies. Here, we study a subset of five tipping elements and…
For simulation models of pedestrian dynamics there are always the issues of calibration and validation. These are usually done by comparing measured properties of the dynamics found in observation, experiments and simulation in certain…
A wide body of work has applied the concept of critical slowing down to estimate the stability of different Earth system components. Most of them -- such as global vegetation -- are inherently non-stationary, for example due to strong…
Computer simulation models are widely used to study complex physical systems. A related fundamental topic is the inverse problem, also called calibration, which aims at learning about the values of parameters in the model based on…
Decadal temperature prediction provides crucial information for quantifying the expected effects of future climate changes and thus informs strategic planning and decision-making in various domains. However, such long-term predictions are…
We propose a framework employing stochastic differential equations to facilitate the long-term stability analysis of power grids with intermittent wind power generations. This framework takes into account the discrete dynamics which play a…