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There has been considerable interest in making Bayesian inference more scalable. In big data settings, most literature focuses on reducing the computing time per iteration, with less focused on reducing the number of iterations needed in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-28 Leo L. Duan , James E. Johndrow , David B. Dunson

The design of the proposal distributions, and most notably the kernel parameters, are crucial for the performance of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) rendering. A poor selection of parameters can increase the correlation of the Markov chain…

The Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has proven to be an effective variance-reduction statistical method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) in Partial Differential Equation (PDE) models, combining model computations at different levels…

Mathematical Software · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Santiago Badia , Jerrad Hampton , Javier Principe

Time-varying parameter (TVP) regression models can involve a huge number of coefficients. Careful prior elicitation is required to yield sensible posterior and predictive inferences. In addition, the computational demands of Markov Chain…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-05-15 Niko Hauzenberger , Florian Huber , Gary Koop

Monte Carlo methods represent the "de facto" standard for approximating complicated integrals involving multidimensional target distributions. In order to generate random realizations from the target distribution, Monte Carlo techniques use…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-21 L. Martino , V. Elvira , D. Luengo , J. Corander

Stochastic optimization in learning and inference often relies on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to approximate gradients when exact computation is intractable. However, finite-time MCMC estimators are biased, and reducing this bias…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Antoine Godichon-Baggioni , Gabriel Lang , Sylvain Le Corff , Julien Stoehr , Sobihan Surendran

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods sample from unnormalized probability distributions and offer guarantees of exact sampling. However, in the continuous case, unfavorable geometry of the target distribution can greatly limit the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-09 Zengyi Li , Yubei Chen , Friedrich T. Sommer

We design and implement a novel algorithm for computing a multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) estimator of the cumulative distribution function of a quantity of interest in problems with random input parameters or initial conditions. Our approach…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Søren Taverniers , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-09 Adrien Corenflos , Matthew Sutton , Nicolas Chopin

We consider the recently introduced Transformation-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) (Dutta and Bhattacharya (2014)), a methodology that is designed to update all the parameters simultaneously using some simple deterministic…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-24 Kushal Kumar Dey , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Variational inference (VI) combined with data subsampling enables approximate posterior inference over large data sets, but suffers from poor local optima. We first formulate a deterministic annealing approach for the generic class of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-05-31 Stephan Mandt , James McInerney , Farhan Abrol , Rajesh Ranganath , David Blei

We propose a Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from high dimensional probability distributions that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and importance sampling. We provide a careful theoretical analysis, including guarantees on robustness to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-18 Giacomo Zanella , Gareth Roberts

For a given Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, we define the distance between configurations that quantifies the difficulty of transitions. This distance enables us to investigate MCMC algorithms in a geometrical way, and we…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2020-01-08 Masafumi Fukuma , Nobuyuki Matsumoto , Naoya Umeda

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC), or particle filtering, is a popular class of methods for sampling from an intractable target distribution using a sequence of simpler intermediate distributions. Like other importance sampling-based methods,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-11-18 Shixiang Gu , Zoubin Ghahramani , Richard E. Turner

There is a tension between robustness and efficiency when designing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms. Here we focus on robustness with respect to tuning parameters, showing that more sophisticated algorithms tend to be…

Computation · Statistics 2020-05-12 Samuel Livingstone , Giacomo Zanella

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is a widely used approach for policy improvement through search with increasing popularity for real world applications. Due to the sequential and deterministic nature of its search, runtime-scaling of MCTS…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Yaniv Oren , Viliam Vadocz , Joery A. de Vries , Wendelin Böhmer , Matthijs T. J. Spaan , Hendrik Baier

This article considers the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of ratios of normalizing constants associated to posterior distributions which in principle rely on continuum models. Therefore, the Monte Carlo estimation error and the…

Computation · Statistics 2016-03-04 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

In this paper we propose a general framework of performing MCMC with only a mini-batch of data. We show by estimating the Metropolis-Hasting ratio with only a mini-batch of data, one is essentially sampling from the true posterior raised to…

Computation · Statistics 2018-05-23 Dangna Li , Wing H Wong

We propose Adaptive Incremental Mixture Markov chain Monte Carlo (AIMM), a novel approach to sample from challenging probability distributions defined on a general state-space. While adaptive MCMC methods usually update a parametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-01 Florian Maire , Nial Friel , Antonietta Mira , Adrian Raftery

Self-learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) methods are recently proposed to accelerate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods using a machine learning model. With latent generative models, SLMC methods realize efficient Monte Carlo updates with less…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-21 Yuma Ichikawa , Akira Nakagawa , Hiromoto Masayuki , Yuhei Umeda