Related papers: Analysing pandemics in phase-space

We consider a global (location independent) model of pandemic growth which generalizes the SIR model to accommodate important features of the COVID-19 pandemic, notably the implementation of pandemic reduction measures. This "SHIR" model is…

In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors…

Purpose: In this study we propose to identify significant economic, political, and social factors that helped contribute to the incidence and mortality of SARS-CoV-2 around the world during the first seven months of the COVID-19 pandemic.…

Pandemics, like the 1918 Spanish Influenza and COVID-19, spread through regions of the World in subsequent waves. There is, however, no consensus on the origin of this pattern, which may originate from human behaviour rather than from the…

During 2020 and 2021, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission has been increasing amongst the world's population at an alarming rate. Reducing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and other diseases that are spread in…

We used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January 2020 to April 5th 2020. Two distinct generative model types were employed: first a…

According to the current perception, symptomatic, presymptomatic, and asymptomatic infectious persons can infect the healthy population susceptible to the SARS-Cov-2. More importantly, various reports indicate that the number of…

Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…

SARS-CoV-2 started propagating worldwide in January 2020 and has now reached virtually all communities on the planet. This short review provides evidence of this spread and documents modelling efforts undertaken to understand and forecast…

A phenomenological model to describe the Corona Virus(covid-19) Pandemic spread in a given population is developed. It enables the identification of the key quantities required to form adequate policies for control and mitigation in terms…

SARS-CoV-2 has disrupted the life of billions of people around the world since the first outbreak was officially declared in China at the beginning of 2020. Yet, important questions such as how deadly it is or its degree of spread within…

The need to understand how infection spreads to the deep lung was acutely realized during the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. The challenge of modeling virus laden aerosol transport and deposition in…

In this work, we adapt the epidemiological SIR model to study the evolution of the dissemination of COVID-19 in Germany and Brazil (nationally, in the State of Paraiba, and in the City of Campina Grande). We prove the well posedness and the…

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) which is caused by SARS-COV2 has become a pandemic. This disease is highly infectious and potentially fatal, causing a global public health concern. To contain the spread of COVID-19, governments are adopting…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a public health emergency of international concern affecting 201 countries and territories around the globe. As of April 4, 2020, it has caused a pandemic outbreak with more than 11,16,643…

We introduce the concept of epidemic-fitted wavelets which comprise, in particular, as special cases the number $I(t)$ of infectious individuals at time $t$ in classical SIR models and their derivatives. We present a novel method for…

Airborne pandemics have caused millions of deaths worldwide, large-scale economic losses, and catastrophic sociological shifts in human history. Researchers have developed multiple mathematical models and computational frameworks to…

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus emerged in 2019, causing a COVID-19 pandemic that resulted in 7 million deaths out of 770 million reported cases over the next four years. The global health emergency called for unprecedented efforts to monitor…

We examine the age-structured SIR model, a variant of the classical Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model of epidemic propagation, in the context of COVID-19. In doing so, we provide a theoretical basis for the model, perform an…

In this work we look at several mathematical models that have been constructed during the present pandemic to address dfferent issues of importance to public health policies about epidemic scenarios and thier causes. We start by briefly…