Related papers: Endogenous Crashes as Phase Transitions
This paper suggests that business cycles may be a manifestation of coupled real economy and stock market dynamics and describes a mechanism that can generate economic fluctuations consistent with observed business cycles. To this end, we…
Deep learning models are widely used in decision-making and recommendation systems, where they typically rely on the assumption of a static data distribution between training and deployment. However, real-world deployment environments often…
We consider a model for substrate-depletion oscillations in genetic systems, based on a stochastic differential equation with a slowly evolving external signal. We show the existence of critical transitions in the system. We apply two…
Transitions between distinct dynamical regimes are ubiquitous in nonequilibrium systems. As a prototypical example, deposition growth is often accompanied by irreversible morphological instabilities. Forecasting such transitions from…
Abrupt shifts in ecosystems, brains, markets, and climate are often diagnosed as signs of approaching a tipping point, i.e. a critical bifurcation where stability is lost. Here we reveal a broader and more deceptive mechanism:…
The extensive adoption of web technologies in the finance and investment sectors has led to an explosion of financial data, which contributes to the complexity of the forecasting task. Traditional machine learning models exhibit limitations…
A temporal point process is a stochastic process that predicts which type of events is likely to happen and when the event will occur given a history of a sequence of events. There are various examples of occurrence dynamics in the daily…
Dynamical phase transition (DPT) characterizes the abrupt change of dynamical properties in nonequilibrium quantum many-body systems. It has been demonstrated that extra quantum fluctuating modes besides the conventional order parameter…
Financial crises emerge when structural vulnerabilities accumulate across sectors, markets, and investor behavior. Predicting these systemic transitions is challenging because they arise from evolving interactions between market…
We introduce a new measure of activity of financial markets that provides a direct access to their level of endogeneity. This measure quantifies how much of price changes are due to endogenous feedback processes, as opposed to exogenous…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
We study stochastic motion planning problems which involve a controlled process, with possibly discontinuous sample paths, visiting certain subsets of the state-space while avoiding others in a sequential fashion. For this purpose, we first…
Percolation is a paradigmatic model in disordered systems and has been applied to various natural phenomena. The percolation transition is known as one of the most robust continuous transitions. However, recent extensive studies have…
Motivated by the hypothesis that financial crashes are macroscopic examples of critical phenomena associated with a discrete scaling symmetry, we reconsider the evidence of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes and test the…
This paper investigates the dynamics of stocks in the S&P500 index for the last 30 years. Using a stochastic geometry technique, we investigate the evolution of the market space and define a new measure for that purpose, which is a robust…
This paper employs Topological Data Analysis (TDA) to detect extreme events (EEs) in the stock market at a continental level. Previous approaches, which analyzed stock indices separately, could not detect EEs for multiple time series in one…
We propose a theory based on dynamical systems to explain and predict the occurrence of extreme events, of which critical transitions form a subset. In fast-slow nonlinear systems, we identify a cascade of events preceding extreme events:…
We present a theory for the two kinds of dynamical quantum phase transitions, termed DPT-I and DPT-II, based on a minimal set of symmetry assumptions. In the special case of collective systems with infinite-range interactions, both are…
We overview the concept of dynamical phase transitions in isolated quantum systems quenched out of equilibrium. We focus on non-equilibrium transitions characterized by an order parameter, which features qualitatively distinct temporal…
Dynamical phase transitions (DPTs) are signaled by the non-analytical time evolution of the dynamical free energy after quenching some global parameters in quantum systems. The dynamical free energy is calculated from the overlap between…