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Cross-validation (CV) is a technique for evaluating the ability of statistical models/learning systems based on a given data set. Despite its wide applicability, the rather heavy computational cost can prevent its use as the system size…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-10-26 Yoshiyuki Kabashima , Tomoyuki Obuchi , Makoto Uemura

The asymptotic optimality (a.o.) of various hyper-parameter estimators with different optimality criteria has been studied in the literature for regularized least squares regression problems. The estimators include e.g., the maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-28 Biqiang Mu , Tianshi Chen , Lennart Ljung

As a technique that can compactly represent complex patterns, machine learning has significant potential for predictive inference. K-fold cross-validation (CV) is the most common approach to ascertaining the likelihood that a machine…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-24 Juan M Gorriz , R. Martin Clemente , F Segovia , J Ramirez , A Ortiz , J. Suckling

Cross-validation is a common method for estimating the predictive performance of machine learning models. In a data-scarce regime, where one typically wishes to maximize the number of instances used for training the model, an approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-25 George I. Austin , Itsik Pe'er , Tal Korem

A conventional wisdom in statistical learning is that large models require strong regularization to prevent overfitting. Here we show that this rule can be violated by linear regression in the underdetermined $n\ll p$ situation under…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-06 Dmitry Kobak , Jonathan Lomond , Benoit Sanchez

Evaluating the predictive performance of a statistical model is commonly done using cross-validation. Among the various methods, leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) is frequently used. Originally designed for exchangeable observations,…

Computation · Statistics 2025-07-04 Zhedong Liu , Janet Van Niekerk , Haavard Rue

This paper develops a general asymptotic theory of series estimators for spatial data collected at irregularly spaced locations within a sampling region $R_n \subset \mathbb{R}^d$. We employ a stochastic sampling design that can flexibly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-03 Daisuke Kurisu , Yasumasa Matsuda

Cross-validation (CV) is a common method to tune machine learning methods and can be used for model selection in regression as well. Because of the structured nature of small, traditional experimental designs, the literature has warned…

Applications · Statistics 2025-06-18 Maria L. Weese , Byran J. Smucker , David J. Edwards

Obtaining valid treatment effect inference remains a challenging problem when dealing with numerous instruments and non-sparse control variables. In this paper, we propose a novel ridge regularization-based instrumental variables method for…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-17 Xiduo Chen , Xingdong Feng , Antonio F. Galvao , Yeheng Ge

We study the problem of detecting multiple change points in the mean vectors of an independent sequence of high-dimensional observations. We propose a family of ridge-regularized CUSUM statistics built upon the adaptable ridge-regularized…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Haoran Li , Haotian Xu

Generative classifiers are constructed on the basis of a joint probability distribution and are typically learned using closed-form procedures that rely on data statistics and maximize scores related to data fitting. However, these scores…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-31 Aritz Pérez , Carlos Echegoyen , Guzmán Santafé

Datasets with extreme observations and/or heavy-tailed error distributions are commonly encountered and should be analyzed with careful consideration of these features from a statistical perspective. Small deviations from an assumed model,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-12 Meadhbh O'Neill , Kevin Burke

There are a variety of settings where vague prior information may be available on the importance of predictors in high-dimensional regression settings. Examples include ordering on the variables offered by their empirical variances (which…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-20 Benjamin G. Stokell , Rajen D. Shah

In this paper, we propose the multivariate range Value-at-Risk (MRVaR) and the multivariate range covariance (MRCov) as two risk measures and explore their desirable properties in risk management. In particular, we explain that such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-05-17 Baishuai Zuo , Chuancun Yin , Jing Yao

In this work, we investigate the behavior of ridge regression in an overparameterized binary classification task. We assume examples are drawn from (anisotropic) class-conditional cluster distributions with opposing means and we allow for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-12 Alexander Tsigler , Luiz F. O. Chamon , Spencer Frei , Peter L. Bartlett

In this manuscript we consider Kernel Ridge Regression (KRR) under the Gaussian design. Exponents for the decay of the excess generalization error of KRR have been reported in various works under the assumption of power-law decay of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-11-29 Hugo Cui , Bruno Loureiro , Florent Krzakala , Lenka Zdeborová

Estimators in statistics and machine learning must typically trade off between efficiency, having low variance for a fixed target, and distributional robustness, such as multiaccuracy, or having low bias over a range of possible targets. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-24 David Bruns-Smith , Zhongming Xie , Avi Feller

Model averaging is an important alternative to model selection with attractive prediction accuracy. However, its application to high-dimensional data remains under-explored. We propose a high-dimensional model averaging method via…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-11 Zhengyan Wan , Fang Fang , Binyan Jiang

Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOOCV) can be particularly accurate among cross-validation (CV) variants for machine learning assessment tasks -- e.g., assessing methods' error or variability. But it is expensive to re-fit a model $N$ times…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-24 William T. Stephenson , Tamara Broderick

The widescale deployment of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) seems to be imminent despite many safety challenges that are yet to be resolved. It is well known that there are no universally agreed Verification and Validation (VV) methodologies to…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-03-05 Dhanoop Karunakaran , Stewart Worrall , Eduardo Nebot