Related papers: Randomized quasi-Monte Carlo methods for risk-aver…
Gerber and Chopin (2015) recently introduced Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo (SQMC) algorithms as an efficient way to perform filtering in state-space models. The basic idea is to replace random variables with low-discrepancy point sets, so as…
Modern computational advances have enabled easy parallel implementations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). However, almost all work in estimating the variance of Monte Carlo averages, including the efficient batch means (BM) estimator,…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms were originally designed for estimating intractable conditional expectations within state-space models, but are now routinely used to generate approximate samples in the context of general-purpose…
We analyse a multilevel Monte Carlo method for the approximation of distribution functions of univariate random variables. Since, by assumption, the target distribution is not known explicitly, approximations have to be used. We provide an…
In this paper we introduce and formalize Substochastic Monte Carlo (SSMC) algorithms. These algorithms, originally intended to be a better classical foil to quantum annealing than simulated annealing, prove to be worthy optimization…
Traditionally, the field of computational Bayesian statistics has been divided into two main subfields: variational methods and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). In recent years, however, several methods have been proposed based on combining…
Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers are a class of stochastic algorithms for Monte Carlo integral estimation w.r.t. probability distributions, which combine elements of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods and importance sampling/resampling…
The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…
The Multilevel Monte Carlo method is an efficient variance reduction technique. It uses a sequence of coarse approximations to reduce the computational cost in uncertainty quantification applications. The method is nowadays often considered…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for sampling probability density functions (combined with abundant computational resources) have transformed the sciences, especially in performing probabilistic inferences, or fitting models to data.…
Quasi-Monte Carlo rules are equal weight quadrature rules defined over the domain $[0,1]^s$. Here we introduce quasi-Monte Carlo type rules for numerical integration of functions defined on $\mathbb{R}^s$. These rules are obtained by way of…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a sampling-based method for estimating features of probability distributions. MCMC methods produce a serially correlated, yet representative, sample from the desired distribution. As such it can be…
In this article we develop a new sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for multilevel (ML) Monte Carlo estimation. In particular, the method can be used to estimate expectations with respect to a target probability distribution over an…
The present work addresses the question how sampling algorithms for commonly applied copula models can be adapted to account for quasi-random numbers. Besides sampling methods such as the conditional distribution method (based on a…
Continuous level Monte Carlo is an unbiased, continuous version of the celebrated multilevel Monte Carlo method. The approximation level is assumed to be continuous resulting in a stochastic process describing the quantity of interest.…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a powerful methodology for the approximation of posterior distributions. However, the iterative nature of MCMC does not naturally facilitate its use with modern highly parallel computation on HPC and cloud…
We introduce a new method to price American-style options on underlying investments governed by stochastic volatility (SV) models. The method does not require the volatility process to be observed. Instead, it exploits the fact that the…
In this paper, we present an online reinforcement learning algorithm, called Renewal Monte Carlo (RMC), for infinite horizon Markov decision processes with a designated start state. RMC is a Monte Carlo algorithm and retains the advantages…
Most solved dynamic structural macrofinance models are non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state-space models with high-dimensional and complex structures. We propose an annealed controlled sequential Monte Carlo method that delivers numerically…
This paper studies the use of a machine learning-based estimator as a control variate for mitigating the variance of Monte Carlo sampling. Specifically, we seek to uncover the key factors that influence the efficiency of control variates in…