Related papers: Extreme events for horocycle flows
In this paper we study the typical speed of a generic earthquake trajectory leaving compact sets in the moduli space of the once-punctured torus. Mirzakhani showed that the earthquake flow is measurably equivalent to the horocyclic flow,…
In this paper we study extreme events for random walks on homogeneous spaces. We consider the following three cases. On the torus we study closest returns of a random walk to a fixed point in the space. For a random walk on the space of…
We study the probability distribution of stock returns at mesoscopic time lags (return horizons) ranging from about an hour to about a month. While at shorter microscopic time lags the distribution has power-law tails, for mesoscopic times…
Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…
We consider a model of loop-erased random walks on the finite pre-Sierpinski gasket which permits rigorous analysis. We prove the existence of the scaling limit and show that the path of the limiting process is almost surely self-avoiding,…
We investigate the limiting distribution of geometric Brownian motion conditional on its running maximum taking large values. We show that the conditional distribution of the geometric Brownian motion converges after a suitable…
Consider a shrinking neighborhood of a cusp of the unit tangent bundle of a noncompact hyperbolic surface of finite area, and let the neighborhood shrink into the cusp at a rate of $T^{-1}$ as $T \rightarrow \infty$. We show that a closed…
We discuss the effects of the directional spreading on the occurrence of extreme wave events. We numerically integrate the envelope equation recently proposed by Trulsen et al., Phys of Fluids 2000, as a weakly nonlinear model for realistic…
This brief paper summarize the chances offered by the Peak-Over-Threshold method, related with analysis of extremes. Identification of appropriate Value at Risk can be solved by fitting data with a Generalized Pareto Distribution. Also an…
We develop a new probabilistic method for deriving deviation estimates in directed planar polymer and percolation models. The key estimates are for exit points of geodesics as they cross transversal down-right boundaries. These bounds are…
Extreme value statistics, or extreme statistics for short, refers to the statistics that characterizes rare events of either unusually high or low intensity: climate disasters like floods following extremely intense rains are among the…
The statistics of the slowest first-passage time among a large population of $N$ searchers is crucial for determining the completion time of many stochastic processes. Classical extreme-value theory predicts that for diffusing particles in…
We prove a strong law of large numbers for directed last passage times in an independent but inhomogeneous exponential environment. Rates for the exponential random variables are obtained from a discretisation of a speed function that may…
The contribution of this paper is to introduce change of measure based techniques for the rare-event analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic processes. Our changes-of-measure are parameterized by a family of distributions admitting a mixture…
We consider the passage time problem for L\'evy processes, emphasising heavy tailed cases. Results are obtained under quite mild assumptions, namely, drift to $-\infty$ a.s. of the process, possibly at a linear rate (the finite mean case),…
We study the statistics of the maximum and minimum of a set of $N$ random variables whose dynamical and statistical properties fall within the scope of infinite ergodic theory. These non-stationary yet recurrent systems are described, in…
Extreme value theory for chaotic dynamical systems is a rapidly expanding area of research. Given a system and a real function (observable) defined on its phase space, extreme value theory studies the limit probabilistic laws obeyed by…
Heterogeneous diffusion with spatially changing diffusion coefficient arises in many experimental systems like protein dynamics in the cell cytoplasm, mobility of cajal bodies and confined hard-sphere fluids. Here, we showcase a simple…
We prove several results for dynamics of $SL(d, \R)$-actions on non-compact parameter spaces by studying associated discrete sets in Euclidean spaces. This allows us to give elementary proofs of logarithm laws for horocycle flows on…
Extremal quantile regression, i.e. quantile regression applied to the tails of the conditional distribution, counts with an increasing number of economic and financial applications such as value-at-risk, production frontiers, determinants…