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Modeling the temporal behavior of data is of primordial importance in many scientific and engineering fields. Baseline methods assume that both the dynamic and observation equations follow linear-Gaussian models. However, there are many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-03 Xavier Alameda-Pineda , Vincent Drouard , Radu Horaud

We propose to model the records of the maximum Drawdown in capital markets by means a Piecewise Deterministic Markov Process (PDMP). We derive statistical results such as the mean and variance that describes the sequence of maximum Drawdown…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-04-01 Rolando Rubilar-Torrealba , Lisandro Fermin , Soledad Torres

This paper investigates the random horizon optimal stopping problem for measure-valued piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). This is motivated by population dynamics applications, when one wants to monitor some characteristics…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-14 Bertrand Cloez , Benoîte de Saporta , Maud Joubaud

Uncertain partially observable Markov decision processes (uPOMDPs) allow the probabilistic transition and observation functions of standard POMDPs to belong to a so-called uncertainty set. Such uncertainty, referred to as epistemic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Murat Cubuktepe , Nils Jansen , Sebastian Junges , Ahmadreza Marandi , Marnix Suilen , Ufuk Topcu

We consider Piecewise Deterministic Markov Processes (PDMPs) with a finite set of discrete states. In the regime of fast jumps between discrete states, we prove a law of large number and a large deviation principle. In the regime of fast…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-16 A. Faggionato , D. Gabrielli , M. Ribezzi Crivellari

Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) model decision making under uncertainty. While there are many approaches to approximately solving POMDPs, we aim to address the problem of learning such models. In particular, we are…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Aidan Curtis , Hao Tang , Thiago Veloso , Kevin Ellis , Joshua Tenenbaum , Tomás Lozano-Pérez , Leslie Pack Kaelbling

We consider a distributionally robust Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (DR-POMDP), where the distribution of the transition-observation probabilities is unknown at the beginning of each decision period, but their realizations…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-12-09 Hideaki Nakao , Ruiwei Jiang , Siqian Shen

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a general mathematical model for sequential decision-making in stochastic environments under state uncertainty. POMDPs are often solved \textit{online}, which enables the algorithm…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Yunuo Zhang , Baiting Luo , Ayan Mukhopadhyay , Abhishek Dubey

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a powerful abstraction for tasks that require decision making under uncertainty, and capture a wide range of real world tasks. Today, effective planning approaches exist that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-24 Sebastian Tschiatschek , Kai Arulkumaran , Jan Stühmer , Katja Hofmann

We study finite horizon optimal switching problems for hidden Markov chain models under partially observable Poisson processes. The controller possesses a finite range of strategies and attempts to track the state of the unobserved state…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2008-05-22 Erhan Bayraktar , Mike Ludkovski

We introduce a novel class of generative models based on piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs), a family of non-diffusive stochastic processes consisting of deterministic motion and random jumps at random times. Similarly to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-06 Andrea Bertazzi , Dario Shariatian , Umut Simsekli , Eric Moulines , Alain Durmus

We develop a general framework for piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers that enables efficient Bayesian inference in non-linear inverse problems with expensive likelihoods. The key ingredient is a surrogate-assisted…

Inverse optimal control can be used to characterize behavior in sequential decision-making tasks. Most existing work, however, is limited to fully observable or linear systems, or requires the action signals to be known. Here, we introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-31 Dominik Straub , Matthias Schultheis , Heinz Koeppl , Constantin A. Rothkopf

In this paper, we are interested in optimal decisions in a partially observable Markov universe. Our viewpoint departs from the dynamic programming viewpoint: we are directly approximating an optimal strategic tree depending on the…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Frederic Dambreville

We consider sensor scheduling as the optimal observability problem for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP). This model fits to the cases where a Markov process is observed by a single sensor which needs to be dynamically…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Mohammad Rezaeian

We consider finite model approximations of discrete-time partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) under the discounted cost criterion. After converting the original partially observed stochastic control problem to a fully…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-10-20 Naci Saldi , Serdar Yüksel , Tamás Linder

In this paper we consider the filtering of a class of partially observed piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMPs). In particular, we assume that an ordinary differential equation (ODE) drives the deterministic element and can only…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-07 Ajay Jasra , Kengo Kamatani , Mohamed Maama

We propose a new reinforcement learning algorithm for partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) based on spectral decomposition methods. While spectral methods have been previously employed for consistent learning of (passive)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-06-20 Kamyar Azizzadenesheli , Alessandro Lazaric , Animashree Anandkumar

We study an optimal process control problem with multiple assignable causes. The process is initially in-control but is subject to random transition to one of multiple out-of-control states due to assignable causes. The objective is to find…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2012-12-12 Jue Wang , Chi-Guhn Lee

In this paper we study a particular class of Piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP's) which are semi-stochastic catastrophe versions of deterministic population growth models. In between successive jumps the process follows a flow…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-09 Branda Goncalves , Thierry Huillet , Eva Löcherbach