Related papers: Normal approximation of Functionals of Point Proce…
Neural Processes (NPs) are a class of models that learn a mapping from a context set of input-output pairs to a distribution over functions. They are traditionally trained using maximum likelihood with a KL divergence regularization term.…
The adapted Wasserstein distance is a metric for quantifying distributional uncertainty and assessing the sensitivity of stochastic optimization problems on time series data. A computationally efficient alternative to it, is provided by the…
We study the convergence to equilibrium in high dimensions, focusing on explicit bounds on mixing times and the emergence of the cutoff phenomenon for Dyson-Laguerre processes. These are interacting particle systems with non-constant…
Most Kalman filters for non-linear systems, such as the unscented Kalman filter, are based on Gaussian approximations. We use Poincar\'e inequalities to bound the Wasserstein distance between the true joint distribution of the prediction…
We extend Stein's celebrated Wasserstein bound for normal approximation via exchangeable pairs to the multi-dimensional setting. As an intermediate step, we exploit the symmetry of exchangeable pairs to obtain an error bound for smooth test…
In this paper, we develop an efficient nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the kernel function of Hawkes processes. The non-parametric Bayesian approach is important because it provides flexible Hawkes kernels and quantifies their…
We consider the fully-coupled McKean-Vlasov equation with multi-time-scale potentials, and all the coefficients depend on the distributions of both the slow component and the fast motion. By studying the smoothness of the solution of the…
The $L^k$-Wasserstein distance $\mathbb{W}_k (k\ge 1)$ and the probability distance $\mathbb{W}_\psi$ induced by a concave function $\psi$, are estimated between different diffusion processes with singular coefficients. As applications, the…
In this work, we provide non-asymptotic bounds for the average speed of convergence of the empirical measure in the law of large numbers, in Wasserstein distance. We also consider occupation measures of ergodic Markov chains. One motivation…
This paper proposes a new methodology to perform Bayesian inference for a class of multidimensional Cox processes in which the intensity function is piecewise constant. Poisson processes with piecewise constant intensity functions are…
We establish a general inequality on the Poisson space, yielding an upper bound for the distance in total variation between the law of a regular random variable with values in the integers and a Poisson distribution. Several applications…
Oscillatory systems of interacting Hawkes processes with Erlang memory kernels were introduced in Ditlevsen (2017). They are piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP) and can be approximated by a stochastic diffusion. First, a strong…
In this paper, we propose a new method to measure the probabilistic robustness of stochastic jump linear system with respect to both the initial state uncertainties and the randomness in switching. Wasserstein distance which defines a…
When the sample path of a Hawkes process is observed discretely, such that only the total event counts in disjoint time intervals are known, the likelihood function becomes intractable. To overcome the challenge of likelihood-based…
Wasserstein distance induces a natural Riemannian structure for the probabilities on the Euclidean space. This insight of classical transport theory is fundamental for tremendous applications in various fields of pure and applied…
We present a novel approximate inference method for diffusion processes, based on the Wasserstein gradient flow formulation of the diffusion. In this formulation, the time-dependent density of the diffusion is derived as the limit of…
We prove limit theorems for functionals of a Poisson point process using the Malliavin calculus on the Poisson space. The target distribution is conditionally either a Gaussian vector or a Poisson random variable. The convergence is stable…
We use Stein's method to obtain bounds on the rate of convergence for a class of statistics in geometric probability obtained as a sum of contributions from Poisson points which are exponentially stabilizing, i.e. locally determined in a…
Point processes are a useful mathematical tool for describing events over time, and so there are many recent approaches for representing and learning them. One notable open question is how to precisely describe the flexibility of point…
Consider the point process (in $\mathbb{R}^d$) of local maxima of smooth Gaussian fields, with sufficient decay of correlation at infinity, above a level $u$. We show that this point process, rescaled appropriately, converges weakly to a…