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Gaussian processes constitute a very powerful and well-understood method for non-parametric regression and classification. In the classical framework, the training data consists of deterministic vector-valued inputs and the corresponding…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-09-26 Maxim Dolgov , Uwe D. Hanebeck

Gaussian processes (GPs) offer a flexible class of priors for nonparametric Bayesian regression, but popular GP posterior inference methods are typically prohibitively slow or lack desirable finite-data guarantees on quality. We develop an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-03-28 Jonathan H. Huggins , Trevor Campbell , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Tamara Broderick

A growing number of generative statistical models do not permit the numerical evaluation of their likelihood functions. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular approach to overcome this issue, in which one simulates…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-10 Espen Bernton , Pierre E. Jacob , Mathieu Gerber , Christian P. Robert

In a discrete-time setting, we consider an arrival process $\left\{\xi_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots \right\}$, which models the occurrence of events, and a corresponding point process $\left\{H_n \, \middle| \, n = 1, 2, \ldots…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Utpal Jyoti Deba Sarma , Dharmaraja Selvamuthu

Constant-stepsize stochastic approximation (SA) is widely used in learning for computational efficiency. For a fixed stepsize, the iterates typically admit a stationary distribution that is rarely tractable. Prior work shows that as the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Zedong Wang , Yuyang Wang , Ijay Narang , Felix Wang , Yuzhou Wang , Siva Theja Maguluri

We study the asymptotics of the expected Wasserstein distance between the empirical measure of a Point Process and the background volume form. The main DPP studied is the harmonic ensemble, where we get the optimal rate of convergence for…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-20 Pablo García-Arias

We consider a real-valued diffusion process with a linear jump term driven by a Poisson point process and we assume that the jump amplitudes have a centered density with finite moments. We show upper and lower estimates for the density of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-27 Arturo Kohatsu-Higa , Eulalia Nualart , Ngoc Khue Tran

We study function estimation in the empirical Bayes setting for Poisson and normal means. Specifically, given observations $Y_i\sim f(\cdot; \theta_i)$ with latent parameters $\theta_i\sim \pi$, the goal is to estimate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Benjamin Kang , Yury Polyanskiy , Anzo Teh

Random events in space and time often exhibit a locally dependent structure. When the events are very rare and dependent structure is not too complicated, various studies in the literature have shown that Poisson and compound Poisson…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-02-22 Aihua Xia , Fuxi Zhang

We study fluctuations of mean-field interacting particle systems around their McKean--Vlasov limit. Our main result provides a uniform-in-time quantitative central limit theorem for the fluctuation process, with convergence rate of order…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Solesne Bourguin , Konstantinos Spiliopoulos

We provide a Poisson approximation result for dependent thinnings of Gibbs point processes as well as qualitative and quantitative central limit theorems for geometric functionals of Gibbs point processes in increasing observation windows.…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-27 Christian Hirsch , Moritz Otto , Anne Marie Svane

This paper calculates transient distributions of a special class of Markov processes with continuous state space and in continuous time, up to an explicit error bound. We approximate specific queues on R with one-sided L\'evy input, such as…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-03 Fabian Michel , Markus Siegle

We study the largest gaps between successive zeros of a smooth stationary Gaussian process. Our main result is that, if correlations decay at least polynomially, then after suitable rescaling of the locations and sizes of the largest gaps…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-22 Renjie Feng , Stephen Muirhead

We analyze the Wasserstein distance ($W$-distance) between two probability distributions associated with two multidimensional jump-diffusion processes. Specifically, we analyze a temporally decoupled squared $W_2$-distance, which provides…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Mingtao Xia , Xiangting Li , Qijing Shen , Tom Chou

The Wasserstein distance is a metric on a space of probability measures that has seen a surge of applications in statistics, machine learning, and applied mathematics. However, statistical aspects of Wasserstein distances are bottlenecked…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-02 Ziv Goldfeld , Kengo Kato , Sloan Nietert , Gabriel Rioux

In this article, relying on Foster-Lyapunov drift conditions, we establish subexponential upper and lower bounds on the rate of convergence in the $\mathrm{L}^p$-Wasserstein distance for a class of irreducible and aperiodic Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-28 Ari Arapostathis , Guodong Pang , Nikola Sandrić

By a method inspired of the Stein's method, we derive an upper-bound of the Rubinstein distance between two absolutely continuous probability measures on configurations space. As an application, we show that the best way to approximate a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-04 Laurent Decreusefond , Nicolas Savy

We introduce a new interpretation of sparse variational approximations for Gaussian processes using inducing points, which can lead to more scalable algorithms than previous methods. It is based on decomposing a Gaussian process as a sum of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-27 Jiaxin Shi , Michalis K. Titsias , Andriy Mnih

We investigate long-time behaviors of empirical measures associated with subordinated Dirichlet diffusion processes on a compact Riemannian manifold $M$ with boundary $\partial M$ to some reference measure, under the quadratic Wasserstein…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-09 Huaiqian Li , Bingyao Wu

We investigate the nonparametric estimation problem of the density $\pi$, representing the stationary distribution of a two-dimensional system $\left(Z_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}=\left(X_t, \lambda_t\right)_{t \in[0, T]}$. In this system, $X$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-01 Chiara Amorino , Charlotte Dion-Blanc , Arnaud Gloter , Sarah Lemler
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