Related papers: Tipping detection using climate networks
Tipping points are one of the hot topics in modern physics of complex systems. But what is a tipping point? A generic definition declares it as ``a state of the system where a small change in its parameters can lead to a significant change…
Many climate subsystems are thought to be susceptible to tipping - and some might be close to a tipping point. The general belief and intuition, based on simple conceptual models of tipping elements, is that tipping leads to reorganization…
We apply tipping point analysis to measurements of electronic components commonly used in applications in the automotive or aviation industries and demonstrate early warning signals based on scaling properties of resistance time series. The…
In an ecosystem, environmental changes as a result of natural and human processes can cause some key parameters of the system to change with time. Depending on how fast such a parameter changes, a tipping point can occur. Existing works on…
Network structures in a wide array of systems such as social networks, transportation, power and water distribution infrastructures, and biological and ecological systems can exhibit critical thresholds or tipping points beyond which there…
Tipping points (TP) are abrupt transitions between metastable states in complex systems, most often described by a bifurcation or crisis of a multistable system induced by a slowly changing control parameter. An avenue for predicting TPs in…
Critical transitions are the abrupt shifts between qualitatively different states of a system, and they are crucial to understanding tipping points in complex dynamical systems across ecology, climate science, and biology. Detecting these…
Tipping elements in the Earth System receive increased scientific attention over the recent years due to their nonlinear behavior and the risks of abrupt state changes. While being stable over a large range of parameters, a tipping element…
Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting), and characterizing the statistics of events of a given…
Tipping points occur in many real-world systems, at which the system shifts suddenly from one state to another. The ability to predict the occurrence of tipping points from time series data remains an outstanding challenge and a major…
Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…
It is tested whether past abrupt climate changes support the validity of statistical early-warning signals (EWS) as predictor of future climate tipping points. EWS are expected increases in amplitude and correlation of fluctuations driven…
Tipping points (TP) are often described as low-dimensional bifurcations, and are associated with early-warning signals (EWS) due to critical slowing down (CSD). CSD is an increase in amplitude and correlation of noise-induced fluctuations…
Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of…
Using in a simple way the theory of non linear dynamical systems, we show that increasing climatic instabilities may be a qualitative warning sign for the occurrence of a nearby bifurcation, yielding a discontinuous and sudden climate…
Bank crisis is challenging to define but can be manifested through bank contagion. This study presents a comprehensive framework grounded in nonlinear time series analysis to identify potential early warning signals (EWS) for impending…
In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…
This study constructs an integrated early warning system (EWS) that identifies and predicts stock market turbulence. Based on switching ARCH (SWARCH) filtering probabilities of the high volatility regime, the proposed EWS first classifies…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
Methods to detect the emergence of infectious diseases, and approach to the "critical transition" RE = 1, have to potential to avert substantial disease burden by facilitating preemptive actions like vaccination campaigns. Early warning…