Related papers: Tipping detection using climate networks
Early warning signals (EWSs) for complex dynamical systems aim to anticipate tipping points before they occur. While signals computed from time series data, such as temporal variance, are useful for this task, they are costly to obtain in…
Regime shifts are quite common in complex systems like cell regulations, disease transmissions, ecosystems, marine ice instability, etc. Several statistical indicators known as early warning signals (EWS) have been theorized to anticipate…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
Dryland vegetation ecosystems are known to be susceptible to critical transitions between alternative stable states when subjected to external forcing. Such transitions are often discussed through the framework of bifurcation theory, but…
In this topical review, we present a brief overview of the different methods and measures to detect the occurrence of critical transitions in complex systems. We start by introducing the mechanisms that trigger critical transitions, and how…
Early warning signals (EWSs) forewarn a sudden transition (or tipping) from a desirable state to an undesirable state. However, we observe that EWSs detect an impending tipping past bifurcation points when control parameters are varied…
This review synthesizes recent advancements in understanding tipping points and cascading transitions within the Earth system, framing them through the lens of nonlinear dynamics and complexity science. It outlines the fundamental concepts…
Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…
Developing methods for detecting tipping phenomena at an early stage is an important problem in various fields such as ecology, medicine, and economics. A tipping phenomenon is characterized by a rapid transition resulting from the…
Financial markets of emerging economies are vulnerable to extreme and cascading information spillovers, surges, sudden stops and reversals. With this in mind, we develop a new online early warning system (EWS) to detect what is referred to…
Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling.…
Prediction of climate tipping is challenging due to the lack of recent observation of actual climate tipping. Despite many previous efforts to accurately predict the existence and timing of climate tippings under specific climate scenarios,…
Real-life systems often experience regime shifts. An early warning signal (EWS) is a quantity that attempts to anticipate such a regime shift. Because complex systems of practical interest showing regime shifts are often dynamics on…
A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized…
The theory of alternative stable states and tipping points has garnered substantial attention in the last several decades. It predicts potential critical transitions from one ecosystem state to a completely different state under increasing…
Real-world complex systems such as the climate, ecosystems, stock markets, and combustion engines are prone to dynamical transitions from one state to another, with catastrophic consequences. State variables of such systems often exhibit…
With rising global temperatures Earth's tipping elements are becoming increasingly more vulnerable to crossing their critical thresholds. The reaching of such tipping points does not only impact other tipping elements through their…
Current early warning signs for tipping points often fail to distinguish between catastrophic shifts and less dramatic state changes, such as spatial pattern formation. This paper introduces a novel method that addresses this limitation by…
Tipping points occur in diverse systems in various disciplines such as ecology, climate science, economy or engineering. Tipping points are critical thresholds in system parameters or state variables at which a tiny perturbation can lead to…
We analyze the ERA5 reanalysis 2-meter temperature time series on all land grid points using change point analysis. We fit two linear slopes to the data with the constraint that they merge at the point in time where the slope changes. We…