Related papers: Calibrating Bayesian Tension Statistics using Neur…
We provide a new interpretation for the Bayes factor combination used in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) first year analysis to quantify the tension between the DES and Planck datasets. The ratio quantifies a Bayesian confidence in our ability…
Quantifying tensions -- inconsistencies amongst measurements of cosmological parameters by different experiments -- has emerged as a crucial part of modern cosmological data analysis. Statistically-significant tensions between two…
We propose a new intuitive metric for evaluating the tension between two experiments, and apply it to several data sets. While our metric is non-optimal, if evidence of tension is detected, this evidence is robust and easy to interpret.…
Tensions between cosmological parameters derived through different channels can be a genuine signature of new physics that $\Lambda$CDM as the standard model is not able to reproduce, in particular in the missing consistency between…
The recent DESI Baryon Acoustic Oscillation measurements have led to tight upper limits on the neutrino mass sum, potentially in tension with oscillation constraints requiring $\sum m_{\nu} \gtrsim 0.06\,{\text{eV}}$. Under the physically…
We present a comprehensive analysis of statistical tools for evaluating tensions in cosmological parameter estimates arising from distinct datasets. Focusing on the unresolved Hubble constant ($H_0$) tension, we explore the Pantheon Plus +…
Tensions between cosmological measurements by different surveys or probes have always been important --- and are presently much discussed --- as they may lead to evidence of new physics. Several tests have been devised to probe the…
We introduce a novel estimator to quantify statistical tensions among multiple cosmological datasets simultaneously. This estimator generalizes the Difference-in-Means statistic, $Q_{\rm DM}$, to the multi-dataset regime. Our framework…
Summary statistics of the likelihood, such as the Bayesian evidence, offer a principled way of comparing models and assessing tension between, or within, the results of physical experiments. Noisy realisations of the data induce scatter in…
Recent measurements of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) show hints of tension with data from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) when interpreted within the standard model of…
We propose a principled Bayesian method for quantifying tension between correlated datasets with wide uninformative parameter priors. This is achieved by extending the Suspiciousness statistic, which is insensitive to priors. Our method…
Recent DESI DR2 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurement shows inconsistency with the cosmic microwave background (CMB) observation in $\Lambda$CDM. We used the Bayesian suspiciousness and goodness-of-fit tension metrics to quantify…
Conventional calibration of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) data relies on estimation of the sound horizon at drag epoch $r_d$ from early universe observations by assuming a cosmological model. We present a recalibration of two…
Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of…
The Hubble tension has proven to be stubbornly persistent, despite widespread efforts to relax it. As a possible resolution of this problem we propose a radical alternative to the way in which cosmological models are viewed. Specifically,…
The Hubble tension, a persistent discrepancy between early and late Universe measurements of $H_0$, poses a significant challenge to the standard cosmological model. In this work, we present a new Bayesian hierarchical framework designed to…
Bayesian inference is central to modern cosmology, yet comprehensive model comparison and tension quantification remain computationally prohibitive for many researchers. To address this, we release $\texttt{unimpeded}$, a publicly available…
We investigate the consistency between DESI DR2 BAO and three SNIa datasets, Pantheon+, Union3, and DES-Y5. Our consistency test is {calibration}-independent since it is independent of cosmological nuisance parameters such as the absolute…
The $\Lambda$CDM model has long served as the cornerstone of modern cosmology, offering an elegant and successful framework for interpreting a wide range of cosmological observations. However, the rise of high-precision datasets has…
Can new cosmic physics be uncovered through tensions amongst datasets? Tensions in parameter determinations amongst different types of cosmological observation, especially the `Hubble tension' between probes of the expansion rate, have been…