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We propose a notion of random horseshoe for one-dimensional random dynamical systems. We prove the abundance of random horseshoes for a class of circle endomorphisms subject to additive noise, large enough to make the Lyapunov exponent…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-04-09 Jeroen S. W. Lamb , Giuseppe Tenaglia , Dmitry Turaev

The Gaussian theory of errors has been generalized to situations, where the Gaussian distribution and, hence, the Gaussian rules of error propagation are inadequate. The generalizations are based on Bayes' theorem and a suitable measure.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Hanns L. Harney

Random models of evolution are instrumental in extracting rates of microscopic evolutionary mechanisms from empirical observations on genetic variation in genome sequences. In this context it is necessary to know the statistical properties…

Biological Physics · Physics 2009-11-07 A. Eriksson , B. Haubold , B. Mehlig

How to estimate heterogeneity, e.g. the effect of some variable differing across observations, is a key question in political science. Methods for doing so make simplifying assumptions about the underlying nature of the heterogeneity to…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-31 Max Goplerud

In the present paper we demonstrate the results of a statistical analysis of some characteristics of precipitation events and propose a kind of a theoretical explanation of the proposed models in terms of mixed Poisson and mixed exponential…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-28 V. Yu. Korolev , A. K. Gorshenin , S. K. Gulev , K. P. Belyaev , A. A. Grusho

Bayesian fused lasso is one of the sparse Bayesian methods, which shrinks both regression coefficients and their successive differences simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian fused lasso modeling via horseshoe prior. By…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-21 Yuko Kakikawa , Kaito Shimamura , Shuichi Kawano

Groups of people or even robots often face problems they need to solve together. Examples include collectively searching for resources, choosing when and where to invest time and effort, and many more. Although a hierarchical ordering of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-10-07 Anna Zafeiris , Tamas Vicsek

The Poisson distribution has been widely studied and used for modeling univariate count-valued data. Multivariate generalizations of the Poisson distribution that permit dependencies, however, have been far less popular. Yet, real-world…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-12-28 David I. Inouye , Eunho Yang , Genevera I. Allen , Pradeep Ravikumar

We develop a Bayesian tree ensemble model to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in censored survival data with high-dimensional covariates. Instead of imposing sparsity through the tree structure, we place a horseshoe prior directly…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-08 Tijn Jacobs , Wessel N. van Wieringen , Stéphanie L. van der Pas

Regression classes modeling more than the mean of the response have found a lot of attention in the last years. Expectile regression is a special and computationally convenient case of this family of models. Expectiles offer a quantile-like…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-19 Elisabeth Waldmann , Fabian Sobotka , Thomas Kneib

One property of networks that has received comparatively little attention is hierarchy, i.e., the property of having vertices that cluster together in groups, which then join to form groups of groups, and so forth, up through all levels of…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-04-12 Aaron Clauset , Cristopher Moore , M. E. J. Newman

The problem of free-riding arises when individuals benefit from a shared resource, service, or public good without contributing proportionately to its provision. This conduct often leads to a collective action problem, as individuals pursue…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-06-12 María Pereda

In the current paradigm there is a non-trivial bias expected in the process of galaxy formation. Thus, the observed statistical properties of the galaxy distribution do not necessarily extend to the underlying matter distribution.…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-10-22 J. N. Fry , Enrique Gaztanaga

The structure of a Bayesian network encodes most of the information about the probability distribution of the data, which is uniquely identified given some general distributional assumptions. Therefore it's important to study the…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-10-15 Marco Scutari

Non-Bayesian social learning theory provides a framework for distributed inference of a group of agents interacting over a social network by sequentially communicating and updating beliefs about the unknown state of the world through…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-25 James Z. Hare , Cesar Uribe , Lance Kaplan , Ali Jadbabaie

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have recently received increasing attention for their ability to provide well-calibrated posterior uncertainties. However, model selection---even choosing the number of nodes---remains an open question.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-01 Soumya Ghosh , Jiayu Yao , Finale Doshi-Velez

We propose a notion of random horseshoe and prove density of random horseshoes for non uniformly expanding random dynamical systems with additive noise

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Jeroen S. W. Lamb , Giuseppe Tenaglia , Dmitry Turaev

Probability estimation is one of the fundamental tasks in statistics and machine learning. However, standard methods for probability estimation on discrete objects do not handle object structure in a satisfactory manner. In this paper, we…

Applications · Statistics 2018-11-06 Cheng Zhang , Frederick A. Matsen

We introduce a factor analysis model that summarizes the dependencies between observed variable groups, instead of dependencies between individual variables as standard factor analysis does. A group may correspond to one view of the same…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-19 Seppo Virtanen , Arto Klami , Suleiman A. Khan , Samuel Kaski

Stochastic linear combinations of some random vectors are studied where the distribution of the random vectors and the joint distribution of their coefficients are Dirichlet. A method is provided for calculating the distribution of these…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-03 Hazhir Homei