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Weighted empirical risk minimization is a common approach to prediction under distribution drift. This article studies its out-of-sample prediction error under nonstationarity. We provide a general decomposition of the excess risk into a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Tobias Brock , Thomas Nagler

To facilitate a wide-spread acceptance of AI systems guiding decision making in real-world applications, trustworthiness of deployed models is key. That is, it is crucial for predictive models to be uncertainty-aware and yield…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-04 Christian Tomani , Florian Buettner

This thesis aims to invent new approaches for making inferences with the k-means algorithm. k-means is an iterative clustering algorithm that randomly assigns k centroids, then assigns data points to the nearest centroid, and updates…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-24 Alfred K. Adzika , Prudence Djagba

Covariate shift has been shown to sharply degrade both predictive accuracy and the calibration of uncertainty estimates for deep learning models. This is worrying, because covariate shift is prevalent in a wide range of real world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-01-18 Zachary Nado , Shreyas Padhy , D. Sculley , Alexander D'Amour , Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Jasper Snoek

Extensive efforts have been made to understand and improve the fairness of machine learning models based on observational metrics, especially in high-stakes domains such as medical insurance, education, and hiring decisions. However, there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-22 Mintong Kang , Linyi Li , Maurice Weber , Yang Liu , Ce Zhang , Bo Li

Uncertainty in decision-making is crucial in the machine learning model used for a safety-critical system that operates in the real world. Therefore, it is important to handle uncertainty in a graceful manner for the safe operation of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-16 Akash Fogla , Kanish Kumar , Sunnay Saurav , Bishnu ramanujan

A significant challenge in maintaining real-world machine learning models is responding to the continuous and unpredictable evolution of data. Most practitioners are faced with the difficult question: when should I retrain or update my…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Regol Florence , Schwinn Leo , Sprague Kyle , Coates Mark , Markovich Thomas

The problem of detecting whether a test sample is from in-distribution (i.e., training distribution by a classifier) or out-of-distribution sufficiently different from it arises in many real-world machine learning applications. However, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-27 Kimin Lee , Honglak Lee , Kibok Lee , Jinwoo Shin

We propose a framework for learning calibrated uncertainties under domain shifts, where the source (training) distribution differs from the target (test) distribution. We detect such domain shifts via a differentiable density ratio…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-07 Haoxuan Wang , Zhiding Yu , Yisong Yue , Anima Anandkumar , Anqi Liu , Junchi Yan

How to estimate the uncertainty of a given model is a crucial problem. Current calibration techniques treat different classes equally and thus implicitly assume that the distribution of training data is balanced, but ignore the fact that…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Jiahao Chen , Bing Su

Many machine learning models appear to deploy effortlessly under distribution shift, and perform well on a target distribution that is considerably different from the training distribution. Yet, learning theory of distribution shift bounds…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-30 Robi Bhattacharjee , Nick Rittler , Kamalika Chaudhuri

Performative learning addresses the increasingly pervasive situations in which algorithmic decisions may induce changes in the data distribution as a consequence of their public deployment. We propose a novel view in which these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-05 Edwige Cyffers , Muni Sreenivas Pydi , Jamal Atif , Olivier Cappé

Safety goes first. Meeting and maintaining industry safety standards for robustness of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models require continuous monitoring for faults and performance drops. Deep learning models are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-03 Aria Khademi , Michael Hopka , Devesh Upadhyay

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of sample selection bias correction. The sample bias correction technique commonly used in machine learning consists of reweighting the cost of an error on each training point of a biased sample to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2008-12-18 Corinna Cortes , Mehryar Mohri , Michael Riley , Afshin Rostamizadeh

Modern deep convolutional networks (CNNs) are often criticized for not generalizing under distributional shifts. However, several recent breakthroughs in transfer learning suggest that these networks can cope with severe distribution shifts…

Reliability estimation of Machine Learning (ML) models is becoming a crucial subject. This is particularly the case when such \mbox{models} are deployed in safety-critical applications, as the decisions based on model predictions can result…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-23 Mohammed Naveed Akram , Akshatha Ambekar , Ioannis Sorokos , Koorosh Aslansefat , Daniel Schneider

Machine learning systems deployed in the real world must operate under dynamic and often unpredictable distribution shifts. This challenges the validity of statistical safety assurances on the system's risk established beforehand. Common…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-23 Alexander Timans , Rajeev Verma , Eric Nalisnick , Christian A. Naesseth

Credit risk scoring must support high-stakes lending decisions where data distributions change over time, probability estimates must be reliable, and group-level fairness is required. While modern machine learning models improve default…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-10 Srikumar Nayak

With the recent advances in the field of deep learning, learning-based methods are widely being implemented in various robotic systems that help robots understand their environment and make informed decisions to achieve a wide variety of…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-03-16 Abhishek Paudel

The basic underlying assumption of machine learning (ML) models is that the training and test data are sampled from the same distribution. However, in daily practice, this assumption is often broken, i.e. the distribution of the test data…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-01-16 Adriana Valentina Costache , Silviu Florin Gheorghe , Eduard Gabriel Poesina , Paul Irofti , Radu Tudor Ionescu
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