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The existence of large and extreme claims of a non-life insurance portfolio influences the ability of (re)insurers to estimate the reserve. The excess over-threshold method provides a way to capture and model the typical behaviour of…
The extreme statistics of time signals is studied when the maximum is measured from the initial value. In the case of independent, identically distributed (iid) variables, we classify the limiting distribution of the maximum according to…
We propose a new testing procedure about the tail weight parameter of multivariate Student $t$ distributions by having recourse to the Le Cam methodology. Our test is asymptotically as efficient as the classical likelihood ratio test, but…
The properties of Maximum Likelihood estimator in mixed causal and noncausal models with a generalized Student's t error process are reviewed. Several known existing methods are typically not applicable in the heavy-tailed framework. To…
This paper introduces the multivariate tail-inflated normal (MTIN) distribution, an elliptical heavy-tails generalization of the multivariate normal (MN). The MTIN belongs to the family of MN scale mixtures by choosing a convenient…
We provide some asymptotic theory for the largest eigenvalues of a sample covariance matrix of a p-dimensional time series where the dimension p = p_n converges to infinity when the sample size n increases. We give a short overview of the…
For probabilistic programs, it is usually not possible to automatically derive exact information about their properties, such as the distribution of states at a given program point. Instead, one can attempt to derive approximations, such as…
The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…
Distributions following a power-law are an ubiquitous phenomenon. Methods for determining the exponent of a power-law tail by graphical means are often used in practice but are intrinsically unreliable. Maximum likelihood estimators for the…
We establish sharp large deviation asymptotics for the maximum order statistic of independent and identically distributed heavy-tailed random variables, valid for all Borel subsets of the right tail. This result yields exact decay rates for…
Consider a random sample from a bivariate distribution function $F$ in the max-domain of attraction of an extreme-value distribution function $G$. This $G$ is characterized by two extreme-value indices and a spectral measure, the latter…
Existing theory for multivariate extreme values focuses upon characterizations of the distributional tails when all components of a random vector, standardized to identical margins, grow at the same rate. In this paper, we consider the…
This article discusses modelling of the tail of a multivariate distribution function by means of a large deviation principle (LDP), and its application to the estimation of the probability of a multivariate extreme event from a sample of n…
In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…
Many complex networks in natural and social phenomena have often been characterized by heavy-tailed degree distributions. However, due to rapidly growing size of network data and concerns on privacy issues about using these data, it becomes…
The problem of estimating the coefficient of bivariate tail dependence is considered here from the robustness point of view; it combines two apparently contradictory theories of robust statistics and extreme value statistics. The usual…
In this article, we proposed a new probability distribution named as power Maxwell distribution (PMaD). It is another extension of Maxwell distribution (MaD) which would lead more flexibility to analyze the data with non-monotone failure…
In this paper we are concerned with the analysis of heavy-tailed data when a portion of the extreme values is unavailable. This research was motivated by an analysis of the degree distributions in a large social network. The degree…
For a risk vector $V$, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents' exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by…
Complex continuous or mixed joint distributions (e.g., P(Y | z_1, z_2, ..., z_N)) generally lack closed-form solutions, often necessitating approximations such as MCMC. This paper proposes Indeterminate Probability Theory (IPT), which makes…