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A decision must often be made between heavy-tailed and Gaussian errors for a regression or a time series model, and the t-distribution is frequently used when it is assumed that the errors are heavy-tailed distributed. The performance of…

Power law distributions, in particular Pareto distributions, describe data across diverse areas of study. We have developed a package in R to estimate the tail index for such datasets focusing on speed (in particular with large datasets),…

Many measures of peakedness, heavy-tailedness and kurtosis have been proposed in the literature, mainly because kurtosis, as originally defined, is a complex combination of the other two concepts. Insight into all three concepts can be…

Distinguishing power-law distributions from other heavy-tailed distributions is challenging, and this task is often further complicated by subsampling effects. In this work, we evaluate the performance of two commonly used methods for…

We propose an extension of the regular Cox's proportional hazards model which allows the estimation of the probabilities of rare events. It is known that when the data are heavily censored at the upper end of the survival distribution, the…

This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate…

An expanded family of mixtures of multivariate power exponential distributions is introduced. While fitting heavy-tails and skewness has received much attention in the model-based clustering literature recently, we investigate the use of a…

The dominant approaches to text representation in natural language rely on learning embeddings on massive corpora which have convenient properties such as compositionality and distance preservation. In this paper, we develop a novel method…

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Let $X_{1,n}\le\cdots\le X_{n,n}$ be the order statistics of $n$ independent random variables with a common distribution function $F$ having right heavy tail with tail index $\gamma$. Given known constants $d_{i,n}$, $1\le i\le n$, consider…

It was observed that the number of cases and deaths for infectious diseases were associated with heavy-tailed power law distributions such as the Pareto distribution. While Pareto distribution was widely used to model the cases and deaths…

We obtain concentration and large deviation for the sums of independent and identically distributed random variables with heavy-tailed distributions. Our concentration results are concerned with random variables whose distributions satisfy…

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) algorithms are widely used to approximate expectations with respect to complicated target probability distributions. When the target has heavy tails, existing AIS algorithms can provide inconsistent…

In previous work Majda and McLaughlin computed explicit expressions for the $2N$th moments of a passive scalar advected by a linear shear flow in the form of an integral over ${\bf R}^N$. In this paper we first compute the asymptotics of…

We propose a stochastic process driven by the memory effect with novel distributions which include both exponential and leptokurtic heavy-tailed distributions. A class of the distributions is analytically derived from the continuum limit of…

The probability that the sum of independent, centered, identically distributed, heavy-tailed random variables achieves a very large value is asymptotically equal to the probability that there exists a single summand equalling that value. We…

We derive two-sided bounds for moments and tails of random quadratic forms (random chaoses of order $2$), generated by independent symmetric random variables such that $\lVert X \rVert_{2p} \leq \alpha \lVert X \rVert_p$ for any $p\geq 1$…

This work proposes a novel method to robustly and accurately model time series with heavy-tailed noise, in non-stationary scenarios. In many practical application time series have heavy-tailed noise that significantly impacts the…

Extreme events appear in many physics phenomena, whenever the probability distribution has a ''heavy tail'', differing very much from the equilibrium one. Most unusual are the cases of power-law (Pareto) probability distributions. Among…

It was shown that when one disposes of a parametric information of the truncation distribution, the semiparametric estimator of the distribution function for truncated data (Wang, 1989) is more efficient than the nonparametric one. On the…