Related papers: Protection Degree and Migration in the Stochastic …
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
Epidemics are inherently stochastic, and stochastic models provide an appropriate way to describe and analyse such phenomena. Given temporal incidence data consisting of, for example, the number of new infections or removals in a given time…
Self-adaptive dynamics occurs in many physical systems such as socio-economics, neuroscience, or biophysics. We formalize a self-adaptive modeling approach, where adaptation takes place within a set of strategies based on the history of the…
Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…
In their response to the COVID-19 outbreak, governments face the dilemma to balance public health and economy. Mobility plays a central role in this dilemma because the movement of people enables both economic activity and virus spread. We…
The structure of heterogeneous networks and human mobility patterns profoundly influence the spreading of endemic diseases. In small-scale communities, individuals engage in social interactions within confined environments, such as homes…
We study the spread of an SIRS-type epidemic with vaccination on network. Starting from an exact Markov description of the model, we investigate the mean epidemic lifetime by providing a sufficient condition for fast extinction that depends…
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic radically impacts our lives, while the transmission/infection and recovery dynamics of COVID-19 remain obscure. A time-dependent Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) model…
We consider a model for an epidemic in a population that occupies geographically distinct locations. The disease is spread within subpopulations by contacts between infective and susceptible individuals, and is spread between subpopulations…
We present a generic epidemic model with stochastic parameters, in which the dynamics self-organize to a critical state with suppressed exponential growth. More precisely, the dynamics evolve into a quasi-steady-state, where the effective…
We present a series of SIR-network models, extended with a game-theoretic treatment of imitation dynamics which result from regular population mobility across residential and work areas and the ensuing interactions. Each considered…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…
During a public health crisis like COVID-19, individuals' adoption of protective behaviors, such as self-isolation and wearing masks, can significantly impact the spread of the disease. In the meanwhile, the spread of the disease can also…
In the recent COVID-19 pandemic we assisted at a sequence of epidemic waves intertwined by anomalous fade-outs with periods of low but persistent epidemic prevalence. These long-living epidemic states complicate epidemic control and…
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…
The recent spreading of coronavirus made many countries impose restrictions in order to control its dangerous effect on the citizens. We developed a theoretical dynamical model based on compartmental SIR system with additional adjustment…
In this paper we study the diffusion of an SIS-type epidemics on a network under the presence of a random environment, that enters in the definition of the infection rates of the nodes. Accordingly, we model the infection rates in the form…
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…
Why are the epidemic patterns of COVID-19 so different among different cities or countries which are similar in their populations, medical infrastructures, and people's behavior? Why are forecasts or predictions made by so-called experts…
Multiple-type branching processes that model the spread of infectious diseases are investigated. In these stochastic processes, the disease goes through multiple stages before it eventually disappears. We mostly focus on the critical…