Related papers: Protection Degree and Migration in the Stochastic …
With the premise that social interactions are described by power-law distributions, we study a SIR stochastic dynamic on a static scale-free random network generated via configuration model. We verify our model with respect to deterministic…
Since 1927, until recently, models describing the spread of disease have mostly been of the SIR-compartmental type, based on the assumption that populations are homogeneous and well-mixed. The focus of these models have typically been on…
Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by…
We propose a stochastic SIR model, specified as a system of stochastic differential equations, to analyse the data of the Italian COVID-19 epidemic, taking also into account the under-detection of infected and recovered individuals in the…
We explore a rigorous formulation of agent-based SIR epidemic dynamics as a discrete-state Markov process, capturing the stochastic propagation of infection or an invading agent on networks. Using indicator functions and corresponding…
The basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is extended to include effects of progressive social awareness, lockdowns and anthropogenic migration. It is found that social awareness can effectively contain the spread by lowering the…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
In this article, we investigate the importance of demographic and contact patterns in determining the spread of COVID-19 and to the effectiveness of social distancing policies. We investigate these questions proposing an augmented…
We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…
The adoption of prophylaxis attitudes, such as social isolation and use of face masks, to mitigate epidemic outbreaks strongly depends on the support of the population. In this work, we investigate a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR)…
Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…
In this article, a new mathematical model of human population growth as an autonomous non-Markov queuing system with an unlimited number of servers and two types of applications is proposed. The research of this system was carried out a…
In the context of natural disasters, human responses inevitably intertwine with natural factors. The COVID-19 pandemic, as a significant stress factor, has brought to light profound variations among different countries in terms of their…
For preventing the spread of epidemics such as the coronavirus disease COVID-19, social distancing and the isolation of infected persons are crucial. However, existing reaction-diffusion equations for epidemic spreading are incapable of…
We introduce a modified SIR model with memory for the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a constant population of individuals. Each individual is in one of the states susceptible (${\bf S}$), infected (${\bf I}$) or recovered (${\bf R}$). In…
The extinction and persistence of infective individuals are closely related to the random change of the environment. In this paper, via the random/stochastic SIRS models, we analyze qualitatively and quantitatively the impact caused by the…
The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is the cornerstone of epidemiological models. However, this specification depends on two parameters only, which implies a lack of flexibility and the difficulty to replicate the volatile…
In this paper, we study the effectiveness of the modelling approach on the pandemic due to the spreading of the novel COVID-19 disease and develop a susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model that provides a theoretical framework to…
The COVID-19 pandemic has been characterised by multiple waves of transmission driven by interventions and emerging variants, challenging epidemic models that assume gradually evolving transmission dynamics. We propose a class of…
We define and study an open stochastic SIR (Susceptible -- Infected -- Removed) model on a graph in order to describe the spread of an epidemic on a cattle trade network with epidemiological and demographic dynamics occurring over the same…